AsoundUtilitarianmightbeexpectedtomakethepropercompromise。Noonecouldbemoreonhisguardagainsttheerrorofsubordinatingtruthtopoeticfancy。Buthewouldnotdenytheimportanceofsomuchimaginativesympathyasisimpliedinaclearapprehensionofthementalandmoralconditionofpastepochs。HemightfindasufficientsubstituteforthedangerousfacultyofpicturesqueimaginationinthemoresoberfacultywhichGrotepossessed——massivecommonsense；the’knowledgeofhumannature，’asitiscalled，whichcorrespondsnottopoeticimaginationortoasetofestablishedformulae，buttothepracticalinsightacquiredbyintimateacquaintancewithactualaffairs。IfGrotewasabletorivalortosurpassGermanprofessorsontheirownground，itwasbecausehiswantofsomeoftheirspecialtrainingwasmorethancounterbalancedbyhisexperienceofbusinessandpubliclife。InThreadneedleStreetandatWestminsterhehadacquiredaninstinctiveperceptionwhichservedhimindescribingthepoliticalandeconomicalconditionsofAthenianlife。Whenjoinedwithanardourforresearchthatpowergaveavaluetohisjudgmentsoffactwhichenabledhimtowriteamodelhistory。
The’graphic’or’artistic’typeofhistorymaybeobjectionable；isnotthephilosophicalworse？Nothingdistortsfactssomuchastheory；andascientifichistorianshouldbeonhisguardagainstthephilosopherofallmen。Buthowtodrawtheline？Sticktobarefactandyoucanonlywriteannals。Historyproperbeginsasyouintroducecausation，andthemereseriesistransformedintoaprocess。Itisimpossibletogetabarefactwithoutsomeadmixtureoftheory。TheUtilitarianprinciple，again，suggeststherightaim。Itexcludesthemischievousdidacticismofolderhistorians。Thequestionoffactmusteverywhereprecedethequestionofright。Inpolitics，economicsandethicsBenthamandMalthusandtheMillshadinvariousrelationsappliedtheprinciplewhichappliesequallytohistory，ThehistorianmayadoptSpinoza’sgreatsaying。Hisbusinessistounderstand，nottoapproveordenounce。AhistoriantreatsofsomegreateventsuchastheFrenchrevolution。Hisonelegitimateanddominantpurposeshouldbetoexplainitscauses，andheshouldinquirewithabsoluteimpartialityhowitcametopass，notwhetheritwasrightorwrong。Theoldmethodofwritinghistoryattributedeventstoindividuals，andconsistentlyappliedamoralestimate。Iftheactionofthisorthatman，MirabeauorRobespierre，wastheultimatecauseoftheevents，wemayaskwhethertheactionwasgoodorbad，andinferthattheeventoughtoroughtnottohavehappened。ThescientificviewfixesattentionsimplyOnthecauses。Whatweretheconditionswhichdeterminedtheevent？Wemustinquireasimpartiallyasapathologistexaminingthecausesofadisease。
Thecategoryofcausationisthesolecategoryrelevant。Ethicaljudgmentsmayfollow：wemaydecidethatcertainprocessesimpliedprogressordecay；wemaygoontojudgeoftheindividuals，makingallowancefortheirmotivesafterestimatingwhatviewofthefactswaspossibleforthem，andweshallgenerallyfindthatthereweregoodmenandbadmenonbothsides，andthatitisoutofplacetoapplysuchwordsasrightorwrongtotheeventsthemselves。Themoralquestionistransferredtoanothersphere，andhumanconductistreatedasacaseofnaturalcausation。ThismethodisimpliedintheveryconceptionofscientifichistoryandwasfullyinaccordancewithUtilitarianism。Menhadbeencomplainingoftheinadequacyoftheoldhistory，whichdealtexclusivelywithpoliticalintriguesandthemilitaryincidents。Ashistorybecamemorescientificthenecessityofattendingtosocialconditionswasdailymoreevident，thoughtheextentofthechangeimpliedisscarcelyevenyetrealised。Thehistory，forexample，ofpoliticalorreligiouschangescannotbefullywrittenwithoutreferencetotheeconomicconditionsofthecountry，andwholesystemsofinvestigationarerequisitebeforethoseconditionscanbetolerablyunderstood。
NothingcouldbemoreinaccordancewithUtilitarianismthanathoroughacceptanceofthisview。Nor，again，shouldanymenhavebeenmorefreefromthetemptationofallowingaprioritheoriesandhastygeneralisationstocolourtheirviewoffacts。ThetrueattitudeofthehistoricalinquirershouldbethatwhichwasillustratedinsciencebyDarwin。Ontheoneside，hemustcollectaslargeaspossibleastoreoffacts，observedasimpartiallyandaccuratelyaspossible。Ontheotherside，hemustbeconstantlybutcautiouslygeneralising；endeavouringtofitthefactsintheirtrueorder；todiscoverwhatformulaeserveto’colligate’themsatisfactorily；andalwaystoassigncauseswhicharebothrealandadequate，suchthattheirexistencecanbeverified，andthat，iftheyexist，theywillfitintoareasonedtheory。Buthistheoriesmustbetentativeandliabletoconstantrevision。Theymaybesuggestiveevenifnotestablished，butinsocomplexaninquirytheymustberegardedasbeingonlyarelativeorapproximatetruth。
Briefly，then，thehistorianshouldaimatprovidingmaterialsfora’sociology，’butbeonhisguardagainstsupposingforamomentthatsuchasciencenowexistsorcaneverberaisedtoalevelwiththefullydevelopedsciences。Thewordcorrespondstoanidealaim，nottoanestablishedfact。Itisimportanttoregardhistoryscientifically，thoughwecannothopeforacompletescienceofhistory。Itsimplymeansthatwemustregardthehistoryofmanasthehistoryofthegradualdevelopmentoftheindividualandofsocietybyforcesdimlyperceived，notcapableofaccuratemeasurement，butyetworkingregularlyandinvolvingnoabruptordiscontinuousintervention。
IfGrote’shistorybereallya’model，’itwasbecausehevirtuallyacceptedsuchlimitations。Historiansshouldadmitthattheyarestillinthestageofcollectingthefactsuponwhichanywidegeneralisationsarestillpremature。Grotewasastudentofphilosophy；hehad，likeMill，beenimpressedbyComte，thoughhenever，likeMill，tookComteforaprophet。Hediscussedearlybeliefsandinstitutions，andhecertainlysupposedhishistorytohaveimportantpoliticalimplications。Butacautiousintellectandadesireforasolidgroundworkoffactrestrainedhimfromexcessivetheorising，andpreventedhisprejudicesfromoverpoweringhiscandour。Sofar，herepresentedthebestUtilitarianspirit，andobeyedwhatwas，oratleastshouldhavebeen，theiressentialcanon：tomakesureofyourfactsbeforeyoulaydownyourtheories。Theywishedtoapplyscientificmethodstohistory，astolaw，politicaleconomy，ethics，andpsychology：and，upontheirview，thefirstconditionofsuccesswasasufficientaccumulationoffacts。Yet，ashasabundantlyappeared，theyhadbeenlittledisposedtoconfinethemselvestothispreliminarystage。Theyweretooreadytoassumethatthesciencescouldbeconstitutedoffhand，andtoacceptconvenientpostulatesasabsolutetruths。Theyhadnotonlypointedout，buttakenpossessionof，thepromisedland。Theirprematuredogmatismshowedtheweaknessoftheirtrustingtheirassumptions。Theresulttophilosophyofhistorymaybeillustratedfromtheremarkablewriter，who，intheperiodofMill’sphilosophicsupremacy，attemptedtolayitsfoundation。
III。HENRYTHOMASBUCKLE
HenryThomasBuckle1821-1862representsthisaspirationbyhisHistoryofCivilizationinEngland。
Buckle23*hadsomequalificationsoftherarestkind。Hehadbeenpreventedbydelicatehealthfromcomingintocontactwithcontemporariesatschoolandcollege，andhisintellectualtastesmadehimabandonabusinesscareer。Hehadfromanearlyagedevotedhimselftoalifeofstudy。Heabsorbedenormousmassesofknowledge，learnedmanylanguages，andhadrangedoverthemostvariedfieldsofliterature。Amostretentivememoryandmethodichabitsofworkgavehimafullcommandofhismaterials，andtheconsciousnessofintellectualforcesuggestedadaringambition。Heproposedtowriteageneralhistoryofcivilisation，thoughhisscheme，ashegraduallybecameawareofthevastnessofhistask，narroweditselftoahistoryofcivilisationinEngland，withpreliminarysurveysofothercivilisations。Bucklehadbeeneducatedinthereligiousandpoliticalatmosphereoftheaveragemiddle-classtype。Foreigntravelandwidereadinghadsappedhisprejudices，andhehadbecomeaLiberalinthedayswhenJ。S。Mill’sinfluencewasculminating。BucklesharedtheenthusiasmoftheperiodinwhichthetriumphofFreeTradeandtheapplicationofAdamSmith’sprinciplesseemedtobeintroducinganeweraofpeaceandprosperityandthefinalextinctionofantiquatedprejudice。HecannotbereckonedasasimpleUtilitarian，butherepresentsthemoreexotericandindependentalliesofthechiefUtilitarianthinker。HeacceptsthegeneralprinciplesofMill’sLogic，thoughhislanguageuponmetaphysicalproblemsimpliesthathisintellecthadneverbeenfullybroughttobearuponsuchquestions。ThegeneralsympathywiththeUtilitariansis，inanycase，unmistakable，andthemostcharacteristictenetsoftheMillschoolofspeculationareassumedordefendedinhiswritings。Bucklewasthusfittedtointerpretthedominanttendenciesoftheday，andhisliteraryabilitywasfullyadequatetotheoffice。HehasmuchoftheclearnessandunflaggingvivacityofMacaulay，andwhateverdefectsmaybediscoverableinhisstyle，nowriterwasbetterqualifiedtointerestreadersoutsidethenarrowcircleofprofessedphilosophers。Thebookwasacceptedbymanyreadersasanauthoritativemanifestoofthescientificspiritwhichwastotransformthewholeintellectualworld。
Buckle’saimistofillthegapintheUtilitarianschemebyplacinghistoricalscienceuponabasisasfirmasthatofthephysicalsciences。Statistics，heargues，revealregularitiesofconductasmarkedasthosewhicharerevealedbytheobservationofnaturalphenomena。Hegivesafatalisticturntothisstatementbyspeakingasthoughthe’laws’somehow’overrode’theindividualvolitions，insteadofsimplyexpressingtheuniformityofthevolitionsthemselves。Fate，itseemed，wentroundandcompelledacertainnumberofpeopleeveryyeartocommitsuicideorpostundirectedlettersinspiteofthemselves。Withoutaskinghowfarthislanguage，whichnotunnaturallystartledhisreaders，mightbecorrectedintoalegitimatesense，wemaypasstoafurtherapplication。Thelawsbywhichhumanconductisgovernedmay，hesays，beeither’physical’or’mental，’thephysicalhavingmoreinfluenceintheearly，andthementalinthelater，stagesofdevelopment。Thiscorrespondstothedistinction，nowfamiliar，betweenthe’organism’andthe’environment，’andrequiresanobviouscorrection。Thetwosetsoflawsrefertotwofactorspresentateverystageofhumandevelopment。The’organism’is，fromfirsttolast，dependentuponits’environment，’buttheactionoftheenvironmentdependsalsoupontheconstitutionoftheorganism。The’mental’and’physical，’therefore，donotactseparately，butaspartsofasingleprocess。Buckle’slanguage，however，expressesanobvioustruth。Ascivilisationadvances，theimportanceofthe’mental’
lawsinexplainingthephenomenaincreases。Thedifferencebetweentwosavageracesmaybeexplainedsimplybythedifferenceoftheirsurroundings；butthecivilisedmanmayvaryindefinitely，whilehisdwelling-placeremainsconstant。Theearlierstagesarethosewhich，inBuckle’slanguage，areunderthepredominantinfluenceofphysicallaws。Climate，food，andsoilontheonehand，andthe’generalaspectsofnature’ontheotherhand，representtheseinfluences。Toshowtheiractionatthedawnofcivilisation，BucklepointstoIndia，Egypt，andtheancientempiresinAmerica。Inthoseregionsarosegreatgovernments，displayingremarkablecoincidencesofstructure，andthussuggestingtheoperationofsomeascertainablecauses。Ifwepossessedacomplete’sociology，’thesephenomenawouldclearlyillustrateimportantlaws，workingwithgreatuniformity，thoughincompleteindependence，andtherefore，itmaybeinferred，revealingsomegeneralprinciplesupontheoriginofgovernments。
Nothingcanpresentamorelegitimatefieldofinquiry。Agreatdespotismimpliesanabundantpopulation，andthereforecertainphysicalconditions，geographicalandclimatic——astheexistenceofawhaleimpliesanopenseaandplentyoffood。Theproblem，then，ishowdotheconditionsleadtotheobservedphenomenon？Howdothephysicalconditionsleadtotheformationoftheseearlycivilisations？HereBucklemakesaremarkableassumption。Hefindsasolutionintheteachingoftheeconomists。Anincreaseofpopulationmeansaloweringofwages；
or，asheputsit，thequestionofwagesis，’inthelongrun，’aquestionofpopulation。24*Now，incoldcountriesmorefoodisrequired，andthefoodishardertoprocurethaninthehot。25*