Hencepopulationwillincreasefasterinhotcountries，andwageswillinthemtendtobelow。ThecaseofIrelandconfirmsorextendsthetheory。There，cheapfooddoeswhatgeneralfertilitydoesinIndia。Thepotato，morethanthe’scandalousmisgovernment，’isthemostactivecauseofIrishpoverty。Cheapfood，then，meanslowwages。Theresult，startlingforanenthusiasticfree-trader，suggestsaconfusion。Anincreaseofpopulationonagivenareamaylowerwages；butitdoesnotfollowthatalargerpopulationmustbeworseoffwhentheareaismoreproductive。HeoughttoshowthattheIndianpopulationmustbeingreaterexcess；hehasonlyshownthatitmaybepositivelygreater。Thereisnoproofthatitwillincreaseatallwhenthe’checks’areonceoperative，orincreaseinagreaterratiotoitssupport。Whatistherealrelationofcauseandeffect？DidIrishmenbecomepoorbecausetheyhadcheapfood，ortaketocheapfoodbecausetheywerepoor？Thefoodenabledthem，nodoubt，tosupportalargernumberofpoor，andinamoreprecariousposition。Whenthepotatofailedtheycouldnotsubstitutewheat。Thatisenoughtoconfutethehastyassumptionthatcheapfoodisapanaceaforpoverty，butdoesnotprovethatplentynecessarilycausespoverty。Thereisanothersteptobetaken。RicardonowsupplementsMalthus。Hehadshownthatthewholewealthofacountrymustbedividedintowages，rent，profit，andinterest，whileinterestisproportionaltoprofit。
Now，inIndia，interestandrenthavebeenenormouslyhigh；
thereforewagesarelowandprofitshigh。26*Ahighrateofinterest，however，mayshowthatcapitalisscarceandpaymentprecarious。Themoneylendermayextorthighinterestfromthepeasant，andyettheaggregateofprofitsmaybesmall，andthewholecountrymiserablypoor。Ricardo’sdoctrineassumesthatthewagesofthelabourerareadvancedbythecapitalist。Itdoesnotapplytoapopulationofvillagecommunities，wherethedifferentiationofclasseshasnotyettakenplace。27*
Buckle，however，doesnottroublehimselfwithsuchdifficulties。Thegreatempiresaresupposedtohavearisenfromthegrowthofarichclass，whosewealthhasenabledthemtogainpoliticalpower。Nodoubtthedespotshadgreatwealthinpoorcountries；butitdoesnotappearthattheyowedittothedevelopmentofagreatclassofrichcapitalists，oreventhatsuchaclassexisted。TheobjectiontoBuckle’smethodisapparent。Inthefirstplace，ittakesforgrantedtheexistenceofacomplexindustrialorganisationasanantecedenttothegrowthofthedespotism。Thesystemunderwhichthecapitalist，thelabourer，andthelandownershareprofits，wages，andrent，thewholemachineryofexchangeandcompetition，ispostulatedasthoughitrepresentedanecessarystate，evenintheearlystagesofcivilisation。Thatwasanaturalapplicationofthenecessaryassumptionoftheorthodoxpoliticaleconomy。Itprofessedtodeduceitsconclusionsfromthelawsofhumannaturecommontoallmeninallages。Theywerethereforeasvalidintheearliestasinthelatesttime，andexplainthecausesaswellastheconsequencesofsocialdevelopment；andhenceitfollowsthatthe’mentallaws’canbeexcluded。Sincetheorganismisconstant，alldifferencesareduetodifferencesofenvironment，or，inBuckle’slanguage，tothe’physicallaws。’’InIndia，’hesays，’slavery，abjectslavery，wasthenaturalstateofthegreatbodyofthepeople；itwasthestatetowhichtheyweredoomedbyphysicallawsutterlyimpossibletoresist。’28*InEurope，asheelsewhereputsit，29*manisstrongerthannature；outofEuropenatureisstrongerthanman。Manisinonecasetheslave，andintheotherthemasterofthephysicalforces。Thatistosay，thatintheearlierstageswemayarguedirectlyfromthe’environment’tothe’organism。’Thehopelessslaverytowhichsomanymillionshavebeendoomedisadirectandinevitableresultofthe’physicallaws，’thatis，oftheclimate，soil，andfood。
Wearethereforedispensedfromanyinquiryintothecharacteroftheorganismitselfandthe’mental’lawsimpliedinitsconstitution；orwetakeforgrantedthatthelawswhichregulatethemoredevelopedorganismareabsoluteandpermanent，andmaythereforeexplaintheearlieststagesofgrowth。30*
Thustheinquiryintothenatureofthesocialorganisation，intotheprimitiveinstitutionsoutofwhichtheempireshavegrown，isvirtuallysetaside。Becausethe’mentallaws’worksouniformlytheymaybeneglected。Weareleftwiththebareresultthatgreatempireshavegrownupunderappropriatephysicalconditions，andtheyarealllumpedtogetheras’despotisms。’
Thatistoemphasisearemarkablesetoffacts，butnottomakethemmoreintelligible。Thefacts，thatis，revealaremarkableuniformityinthesocialorganism；butthatdoesnotshowwhatisthenatureofitsorganisation。Ifweknowthat，weshallbeabletounderstandthedifferencesandthewayinwhichsimilarforceshaveworkedundervaryingconditions。Buckle’sleapatageneralisationsofardistractsattentionfromthemostfruitfullineofinquiry。MalthusandRicardowillsolvetheproblemoffhand。Thesimplecoincidenceofdespotismandfertilityentitlesustosetthemdownascauseandeffect，withoutfurtheranalysisoftheprecisemodeofoperation。
Buckle’snextstepillustratesthesamepoint。The’physical’
lawshavethusdeterminedthedistribution。Theyalsoinfluencereligion，art，andliteraturebytheactionof’aspectsofnature’upontheimagination。Thepowersofnature，asheoddlyputsit，31*’haveworkedimmensemischief。’Theygeneratesuperstitionononeside，astheygeneratedslaveryontheother。
HereBuckle’sdoctrineisconnectedwithComte’s。Heaccepted，ashesayselsewhere，32*Comte’sconclusionsastotheearlieststageofthehumanmind。Themanignorantofscientificlawsattributesallphenomenato’supernaturalcauses。’Comtewasonlyputtingintoacompactformulaatheorymoreorlessassumedbyhispredecessors。Superstitionrepresentsanecessarystageintheintellectualdevelopmentoftherace。Itembodiesthecrudehypothesesofanearlystagewhichhavebeenfalsifiedbylaterexperience。Theycontinuetoexist，however，whentheyhavelongbeenuntenabletoeducatedminds；andBuckle’sremarksmayhelptoexplaintheirvitality。The’aspectsofnature’representtheimpressionmadebyapparentlyirregularphenomena。Superstitionthriveswheremen’slivesareatthemercyofeventswhichcannotbeforeseen。Onespecialandcharacteristicinstanceistheinfluenceofearthquakes。Spain，Portugal，andItalyaretheEuropeancountriesinwhichearthquakesaremostfrequent，andarealsothecountriesinwhichsuperstitionhasbeenmostrife。
Theexcessivestimulustotheimaginationhasledtothecollateralresultthatwhilethesecountrieshaveproducedallthegreatestartists，theyhavewiththepartialexceptionofItalyproducednogreatnamesinscience。33*Theprinciplethatsuperstitionisfosteredbysuchconditionsmaywellbeillustratedbythesefacts。Humehadremarkedthattheeventswhichtogoodreasonerswerethe’chiefdifficultiesinadmittingasupremeintelligence’weretothevulgar’thesoleargumentsforit。’34*Bucklemightwellextendtheargument。Buttosaythatearthquakes’cause’Spanishsuperstitionisaboldgeneralisation。ItisanapplicationofMill’scanonofsimpleagreement。Earthquakesandsuperstitioncoexistintwoorthreedistricts；thereforeearthquakesarethecauseofsuperstition。35*OnBuckle’sownshowing，earthquakesareonlyoneofcountlessconditionswhichmayproducesuperstition。Whyisthisspecialconditiontobeisolated？IfSpainisnowsuperstitious，mustnotthatbeduetotheconcurrenceofinnumerablecauses？Havenotothercountriesbeensteepedintheprofoundestsuperstitionthoughtheyhadnoearthquakes？How，indeed，istheamountofsuperstitioninacountrytobemeasured？Ifweweretoexplainaparticularsuperstitionbytheapparentirregularityofthephenomenaconcerned——thebeliefinanearth-shakingdeity，forexample——theexplanationmightbeadequate。Theobjectionriseswhenitispresentedasageneralscientificformula。Since’superstition’isauniversalincidentofearlystagesofhumanthought，itisclearlynotexplicablebythephenomenaofspecialdistricts。Thatmaybeaninstructiveexample，butcannotgivethegenerallaw。Itisillegitimatetosingleouttheparticularconditionasifitwerethesolecause。
Themainpoint，however，isagainthemodeofarguingfromtheenvironmenttotheorganism。Theargumentfromtheenvironmenttotheorganism，fromtheearthquakestosuperstition，hasthenanobviouslimit。Theconstantconditioncanonlyexplaintheconstantqualities。Thepalpablefactisthatthesamecountryhasbeenoccupiedbyracesofmostdifferentcharacters。
Freethinkingflourisheswheretherewasonceabjectsuperstition，andthereforethecountrycannotbyitselfexplainthesuperstition。When，forexample，BuckleexplainstheartistictemperamentofGreeksorItaliansbythephysicalcharacteristics，heisnodoubtassigningarealcause，butobviouslyacauseinsufficienttoexplainthesingularchanges，theefflorescenceandthedecayofartisticproductionineithercountry。Oneresultischaracteristic。Thedifferencesareoftenexplainedby’heredity’ortheinheritancebyracesofqualitiesnotdevelopedbytheirpresentenvironment，andessentiallydependentupontheprevioussocialevolution。Bucklefullyadmitsthatthequestionof’heredity’isnotsettledbyscientificinquiry。36*Heinfers，andIsupposerightly，thatwecannotassumethatthereisanyorganicdifferencebetweenaninfantborninthemostcivilisedcountryandoneborninthemostbarbarousregion。Still，he’cordiallysubscribes’toMill’sprotestagainstexplainingdifferencesofcharacterbyrace。37*
Sofarasthisexcludesalltheinfluencesbywhichasocietyismouldedthroughinheritedbeliefsandcustoms，itsanctionsanerroneousinference。Becauseracedifferencesarenotultimate，orindicativeofabsoluteorganicdistinctions，theyarealtogethercastoutofaccount。Theexistingdifferenceshavetobeattributedentirelytothephysicalsurroundings；andtheinfluenceof’aspectsofnature’issummarilyadducedtoexplainmuchthatisreallyexplicableonlythroughthehistoryoftheorganismitself。38*
HowfarthismayhaveledBuckletoexaggeratethedirectefficacyofmerephysicalsurroundingsIcannotfurtherinquire。
Atanyrate，hiswholepurposeistoexplainthegrowthofcivilisation，whichmust，asheperceives，bedonebyintroducingavariableelement。Here，therefore，wehavetoconsiderthestateinwhichthe’mental’becomemoreinfluentialthanthephysicallaws。Bucklebeginsbyexpoundingadoctrineofcriticalimportance。Ingeneralterms，heholdsthatprogressdependsupontheintellectualfactor。AsimilardoctrinehadbeenemphaticallyassertedbyComte，andwas，indeed，impliedasafundamentalconceptioninhiswholework。Ideas，hesays，governtheworld：
’Toutlem閏anismesocialreposesurlesopinions。’39*Thelawofthe’threestages’isasystematicapplicationofthisdoctrine。Thedoctrine，again，recognisesanundeniabletruth。
Manisdependentthroughoutuponhisenvironment。That，inasense，remainsconstant。Thesavagelivesinthesameworldasthecivilisedman。Buteverystepofknowledgeimpliesachangeintheman’srelationstotheworld。Hispositionisdeterminednotsimplybythe’physicallaws，’butbyhisknowledgeofthelaws。Thediscoveryofironorofelectricitymakeshisworld，ifnottheworld，different；andthewholesystemofknowledgecorrespondstoanultimateconditionofhislife。Hisknowledge，therefore，isanessentialfactorintheproblem。Therationalismoftheeighteenthcenturyandthelaterprogressofsciencehadofcourseemphasisedthistruth。Thenaturalsciencesrepresenttheintellectualframework，whichsteadilygrowsandateverystagegivesafinaldeterminantofallhumanactivity。
Superstitionsandtheologyingeneralcorrespondtotheerroneoustheorieswhicharegraduallydispelledasweconstructadefinitiveandverifiablebaseofsolidknowledge。Butisthescientificprogressnotonlytheultimatebutthesolefactorinallsocialdevelopment？Manisacomplexbeing，withanemotionalaswellasanintellectualnature，which，proximatelyatanyrate，determineshisconduct。Howarewetoallowforthisfactoroftheinquiry？40*
Buckle’sversionoftheprincipleissignificant。Hebeginsbydistinguishing’progress’into’moral’and’intellectual。’41*Whichoftheseistheimportantelement？Domenprogressinthemoralorintheintellectualelement？Since，aswehaveseen，wecannotassumeanimprovementintheindividual，thelaterdifferencesmustbeascribedtothe’externaladvantages’——totheopinionsandsoforthofthesocietyinwhichthechildiseducated。Inthenextplace，theopinionsareconstantlyvarying，whereasthe’moralmotives’aresingularlyconstant。42*A’stationaryelement，’whensurroundingcircumstancesareunchanged，canonlyproduceastationaryeffect，andhencewemustexplaincivilisationbythevariableagent。Bucklearguesthatthemoralcoderecognisedhasremainedunalteredsincedistanttimes。Thesamegeneralrulesareaccepted，andnoadditionalarticleshavebeeninserted。Thenthegreatstagesofprogressespeciallythegrowthofreligioustolerationandofpeace——havebeenduetointellectual，nottomoralchanges；and，finally，ashethinks，theaveragemanremainsprettymuchthesame。Somemenaregoodandsomebad；butthegoodandthebadactionsneutraliseeachother。Theireffectsaretemporary，whilethe’discoveriesofgreatmen’are’immortal，’andcontainthe’eternaltruthswhichsurvivetheshockofempires，outlivethestrugglesofrivalcreeds，andwitnessthedecayofsuccessivereligions。’43*Buckle，thatis，reservesforthe’eternaltruths’ofscientificdiscoverytheenthusiasmwhichothershadlavishedupontheeternaltruthsofthegreatreligiousteachers。ThedoctrineagreeswiththeUtilitariantheoriesinonerespect。ManissupposedtoremainOnthewholeconstant，inhisnaturalcapacitiesandinhismoralqualities。Ontheotherhand，BuckledwellsmoreemphaticallythanMilluponthespontaneousgrowthofscientificideasasthesolebutsufficientforcewhichmouldsthedestiniesofmankind。