第1章
加入书架 A- A+
点击下载App,搜索"General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money",免费读到尾

  GENERALINTRODUCTION

  ThisnewstandardeditionofTheCollectedWritingsofJohnMaynardKeynesformsthememorialtohimoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。HedevotedaverylargeshareofhisbusylifetotheSociety。In1911,attheageoftwenty-eight,hebecameeditoroftheEconomicJournalinsuccessiontoEdgeworth;twoyearslaterhewasmadesecretaryaswell。

  Heheldtheseofficeswithoutintermittenceuntilalmosttheendofhislife。

  Edgeworth,itistrue,returnedtohelphimwiththeeditorshipfrom1919to1925;MacGregortookEdgeworth\'splaceuntil1934,whenAustinRobinsonsucceededhimandcontinuedtoassistKeynesdownto1945。ButthroughalltheseyearsKeyneshimselfcarriedthemajorresponsibilityandmadetheprincipaldecisionsaboutthearticlesthatweretoappearintheEconomicJournal,withoutanybreaksaveforoneortwoissueswhenhewasseriouslyillin1937。ItwasonlyafewmonthsbeforehisdeathatEaster1946thathewaselectedpresidentandhandedoverhiseditorshiptoRoyHarrodandthesecretaryshiptoAustinRobinson。

  InhisdualcapacityofeditorandsecretaryKeynesplayedamajorpartinframingthepoliciesoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。ItwasverylargelyduetohimthatsomeofthemajorpublishingactivitiesoftheSociety¾Sraffa\'seditionofRicardo,Stark\'seditionoftheeconomicwritingsofBentham,andGuillebaud\'seditionofMarshall,aswellasanumberofearlierpublicationsinthe1930s¾wereinitiated。

  WhenKeynesdiedin1946itwasnaturalthattheRoyalEconomicSocietyshouldwishtocommemoratehim。ItwasperhapsequallynaturalthattheSocietychosetocommemoratehimbyproducinganeditionofhiscollectedworks。

  Keyneshimselfhadalwaystakenajoyinfineprinting,andtheSociety,withthehelpofMessrsMacmillanaspublishersandtheCambridgeUniversityPressasprinters,hasbeenanxioustogiveKeynes\'swritingsapermanentformthatiswhollyworthyofhim。

  Thepresenteditionwillpublishasmuchasispossibleof[Pagex]THE

  GENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  hisworkinthefieldofeconomics。Itwillnotincludeanyprivateandpersonalcorrespondenceorpublishlettersinthepossessionofhisfamily。Theeditionisconcerned,thatistosay,withKeynesasaneconomist。

  Keynes\'swritingsfallintofivebroadcategories。First,therearethebookswhichhewroteandpublishedasbooks。Second,therearecollectionsofarticlesandpamphletswhichhehimselfmadeduringhislifetimeEssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography。Third,thereisaveryconsiderablevolumeofpublishedbutuncollectedwritings¾articleswrittenfornewspapers,letterstonewspapers,articlesinjournalsthathavenotbeenincludedinhistwovolumesofcollections,andvariouspamphlets。

  Fourth,thereareafewhithertounpublishedwritings。Fifth,thereiscorrespondencewitheconomistsandconcernedwitheconomicsorpublicaffairs。

  ThisserieswillattempttopublishacompleterecordofKeynes\'sseriouswritingasaneconomist。Itistheintentiontopublishalmostcompletelythewholeofthefirstfourcategorieslistedabove。TheonlyexceptionsareafewsyndicatedarticleswhereKeyneswrotealmostthesamematerialforpublicationindifferentnewspapersorindifferentcountries,withminorandunimportantvariations。Inthesecases,thisserieswillpublishoneonlyofthevariations,choosingthemostinteresting。

  ThepublicationofKeynes\'seconomiccorrespondencemustinevitablybeselective。Inthedayofthetypewriterandthefilingcabinetandparticularlyinthecaseofsoactiveandbusyaman,topublisheveryscrapofpaperthathemayhavedictatedaboutsomeunimportantorephemeralmatterisimpossible。Weareaimingtocollectandpublishasmuchaspossible,however,ofthecorrespondenceinwhichKeynesdevelopedhisownideasinargumentwithhisfelloweconomists,aswellasthemoresignificantcorrespondenceattimeswhenKeyneswasinthemiddleofpublicaffairs。

  Apartfromhispublishedbooks,themainsourcesavailabletothosepreparingthisserieshavebeentwo。First,KeynesinhiswillmadeRichardKahnhisexecutorandresponsiblefor[Pagexi]GENERAL

  INTRODUCTION

  hiseconomicpapers。TheyhavebeenplacedintheMarshallLibraryoftheUniversityofCambridgeandhavebeenavailableforthisedition。Until1914Keynesdidnothaveasecretaryandhisearliestpapersareinthemainlimitedtodraftsofimportantlettersthathemadeinhisownhandwritingandretained。Atthatstagemostofthecorrespondencethatwepossessisrepresentedbywhathereceivedratherthanbywhathewrote。Duringtheyears1914-18and1940-46

  KeyneswasservingintheTreasury。Withtheopeningofofficialrecords,manyofthepapersthathewrotehavebecomeavailable。From1919onwards,throughouttherestofhislife,Keyneshadthehelpofasecretary¾formanyyearsMrsStevens。Thusforthelasttwenty-fiveyearsofhisworkinglifewehaveinmostcasesthecarboncopiesofhisownlettersaswellastheoriginalsofthelettersthathereceived。

  Therewere,ofcourse,occasionsduringthisperiodonwhichKeyneswrotehimselfinhisownhandwriting。Insomeofthesecases,withthehelpofhiscorrespondents,wehavebeenabletocollectthewholeofbothsidesofsomeimportantinterchangeandwehavebeenanxious,injusticetobothcorrespondents,toseethatbothsidesofthecorrespondencearepublishedinfull。

  ThesecondmainsourceofinformationhasbeenagroupofscrapbookskeptoveraverylongperiodofyearsbyKeynes\'smother,FlorenceKeynes,wifeofNevilleKeynes。From1919onwardsthesescrapbookscontainalmostthewholeofMaynardKeynes\'smoreephemeralwriting,hisletterstonewspapersandagreatdealofmaterialwhichenablesonetoseenotonlywhathewrote,butthereactionofotherstohiswriting。WithouttheseverycarefullykeptscrapbooksthetaskofanyeditororbiographerofKeyneswouldhavebeenimmenselymoredifficult。

  Theplanoftheedition,asatpresentintended,isthis。Itwilltotaltwenty-fivevolumes。Ofthese,thefirsteightwillbeKeynes\'spublishedbooksfromIndianCurrencyandFinance,in1913,totheGeneralTheoryin1936,withtheadditionofhisTreatiseonProbability。

  Therewillnextfollow,asvols。IXandx,EssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography,[Pagexii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  graphy,representingKeynes\'sowncollectionsofarticles。EssaysinPersuasionwilldifferfromtheoriginalprintingintworespects:

  itwillcontainthefulltextsofthearticlesorpamphletsincludedinitandnotasintheoriginalprintingabbreviatedversionsofthesearticles,anditwillhaveaddedoneortwolaterarticleswhichareofexactlythesamecharacterasthoseincludedbyKeynesinhisoriginalcollection。InthecaseofEssaysinBiography,weshalladdoneortwootherbiographicalstudiesthatKeyneswrotelaterthan1933。

  Therewillfollowfourvolumes,XItoXIV,ofeconomicarticlesandcorrespondence,andonevolumeofsocial,politicalandliterarywritings。

  WeshallincludeinthesevolumessuchpartofKeynes\'seconomiccorrespondenceasiscloselyassociatedwiththearticlesthatareprintedinthem。

  Thefurtherninevolumes,asweestimateatpresent,willdealwithKeynes\'sActivitiesduringtheyearsfromthebeginningofhispubliclifein1905untilhisdeath。Ineachoftheperiodsintowhichweproposetodividethismaterial,thevolumeconcernedwillpublishhismoreephemeralwritings,allofithithertouncollected,hiscorrespondencerelatingtotheseactivities,andsuchothermaterialandcorrespondenceasisnecessarytotheunderstandingofKeynes\'sactivities。ThesevolumesarebeingeditedbyElizabethJohnsonandDonaldMoggridge,anditistheirtasktotraceandinterpretKeynes\'sactivitiessufficientlytomakethematerialfullyintelligibletoalatergeneration。Untilthisworkhasprogressedfurther,itisnotpossibletosaywithexactitudewhetherthismaterialwillbedistributed,aswenowthink,overninevolumes,orwhetheritwillneedtobespreadoverafurthervolumeorvolumes。Therewillbeafinalvolumeofbibliographyandindex。

  Thoseresponsibleforthiseditionhavebeen:LordKahn,bothasLordKeynes\'sexecutorandasalongandintimatefriendofLordKeynes,abletohelpintheinterpretingofmuchthatwouldotherwisebemisunderstood;

  SirRoyHarrodastheauthorofhisbiography;AustinRobinsonasKeynes\'sco-editorontheEconomicJournalandsuccessorassecretaryoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。Theinitialeditorial[Pagexiii]GENERALINTRODUCTION

  taskswerecarriedbyElizabethJohnson。MorerecentlyshehasbeenjoinedinthisresponsibilitybyDonaldMoggridge。TheyhavebeenassistedatdifferenttimesbyJaneThistlethwaite,MrsMcDonald,whowasoriginallyresponsibleforthesystematicorderingofthefilesoftheKeynespapers;

  JudithMasterman,whoformanyyearsworkedwithMrsJohnsononthepapers;

  andmorerecentlybySusanWilsher,MargaretButler,andBarbaraLowe。GeneralIntroduction[Pageix]

  GENERALINTRODUCTION

  ThisnewstandardeditionofTheCollectedWritingsofJohnMaynardKeynesformsthememorialtohimoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。HedevotedaverylargeshareofhisbusylifetotheSociety。In1911,attheageoftwenty-eight,hebecameeditoroftheEconomicJournalinsuccessiontoEdgeworth;twoyearslaterhewasmadesecretaryaswell。

  Heheldtheseofficeswithoutintermittenceuntilalmosttheendofhislife。

  Edgeworth,itistrue,returnedtohelphimwiththeeditorshipfrom1919to1925;MacGregortookEdgeworth\'splaceuntil1934,whenAustinRobinsonsucceededhimandcontinuedtoassistKeynesdownto1945。ButthroughalltheseyearsKeyneshimselfcarriedthemajorresponsibilityandmadetheprincipaldecisionsaboutthearticlesthatweretoappearintheEconomicJournal,withoutanybreaksaveforoneortwoissueswhenhewasseriouslyillin1937。ItwasonlyafewmonthsbeforehisdeathatEaster1946thathewaselectedpresidentandhandedoverhiseditorshiptoRoyHarrodandthesecretaryshiptoAustinRobinson。

  InhisdualcapacityofeditorandsecretaryKeynesplayedamajorpartinframingthepoliciesoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。ItwasverylargelyduetohimthatsomeofthemajorpublishingactivitiesoftheSociety¾Sraffa\'seditionofRicardo,Stark\'seditionoftheeconomicwritingsofBentham,andGuillebaud\'seditionofMarshall,aswellasanumberofearlierpublicationsinthe1930s¾wereinitiated。

  WhenKeynesdiedin1946itwasnaturalthattheRoyalEconomicSocietyshouldwishtocommemoratehim。ItwasperhapsequallynaturalthattheSocietychosetocommemoratehimbyproducinganeditionofhiscollectedworks。

  Keyneshimselfhadalwaystakenajoyinfineprinting,andtheSociety,withthehelpofMessrsMacmillanaspublishersandtheCambridgeUniversityPressasprinters,hasbeenanxioustogiveKeynes\'swritingsapermanentformthatiswhollyworthyofhim。

  Thepresenteditionwillpublishasmuchasispossibleof[Pagex]THE

  GENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  hisworkinthefieldofeconomics。Itwillnotincludeanyprivateandpersonalcorrespondenceorpublishlettersinthepossessionofhisfamily。Theeditionisconcerned,thatistosay,withKeynesasaneconomist。

  Keynes\'swritingsfallintofivebroadcategories。First,therearethebookswhichhewroteandpublishedasbooks。Second,therearecollectionsofarticlesandpamphletswhichhehimselfmadeduringhislifetimeEssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography。Third,thereisaveryconsiderablevolumeofpublishedbutuncollectedwritings¾articleswrittenfornewspapers,letterstonewspapers,articlesinjournalsthathavenotbeenincludedinhistwovolumesofcollections,andvariouspamphlets。

  Fourth,thereareafewhithertounpublishedwritings。Fifth,thereiscorrespondencewitheconomistsandconcernedwitheconomicsorpublicaffairs。

  ThisserieswillattempttopublishacompleterecordofKeynes\'sseriouswritingasaneconomist。Itistheintentiontopublishalmostcompletelythewholeofthefirstfourcategorieslistedabove。TheonlyexceptionsareafewsyndicatedarticleswhereKeyneswrotealmostthesamematerialforpublicationindifferentnewspapersorindifferentcountries,withminorandunimportantvariations。Inthesecases,thisserieswillpublishoneonlyofthevariations,choosingthemostinteresting。

  ThepublicationofKeynes\'seconomiccorrespondencemustinevitablybeselective。Inthedayofthetypewriterandthefilingcabinetandparticularlyinthecaseofsoactiveandbusyaman,topublisheveryscrapofpaperthathemayhavedictatedaboutsomeunimportantorephemeralmatterisimpossible。Weareaimingtocollectandpublishasmuchaspossible,however,ofthecorrespondenceinwhichKeynesdevelopedhisownideasinargumentwithhisfelloweconomists,aswellasthemoresignificantcorrespondenceattimeswhenKeyneswasinthemiddleofpublicaffairs。

  Apartfromhispublishedbooks,themainsourcesavailabletothosepreparingthisserieshavebeentwo。First,KeynesinhiswillmadeRichardKahnhisexecutorandresponsiblefor[Pagexi]GENERAL

  INTRODUCTION

  hiseconomicpapers。TheyhavebeenplacedintheMarshallLibraryoftheUniversityofCambridgeandhavebeenavailableforthisedition。Until1914Keynesdidnothaveasecretaryandhisearliestpapersareinthemainlimitedtodraftsofimportantlettersthathemadeinhisownhandwritingandretained。Atthatstagemostofthecorrespondencethatwepossessisrepresentedbywhathereceivedratherthanbywhathewrote。Duringtheyears1914-18and1940-46

  KeyneswasservingintheTreasury。Withtheopeningofofficialrecords,manyofthepapersthathewrotehavebecomeavailable。From1919onwards,throughouttherestofhislife,Keyneshadthehelpofasecretary¾formanyyearsMrsStevens。Thusforthelasttwenty-fiveyearsofhisworkinglifewehaveinmostcasesthecarboncopiesofhisownlettersaswellastheoriginalsofthelettersthathereceived。

  Therewere,ofcourse,occasionsduringthisperiodonwhichKeyneswrotehimselfinhisownhandwriting。Insomeofthesecases,withthehelpofhiscorrespondents,wehavebeenabletocollectthewholeofbothsidesofsomeimportantinterchangeandwehavebeenanxious,injusticetobothcorrespondents,toseethatbothsidesofthecorrespondencearepublishedinfull。

  ThesecondmainsourceofinformationhasbeenagroupofscrapbookskeptoveraverylongperiodofyearsbyKeynes\'smother,FlorenceKeynes,wifeofNevilleKeynes。From1919onwardsthesescrapbookscontainalmostthewholeofMaynardKeynes\'smoreephemeralwriting,hisletterstonewspapersandagreatdealofmaterialwhichenablesonetoseenotonlywhathewrote,butthereactionofotherstohiswriting。WithouttheseverycarefullykeptscrapbooksthetaskofanyeditororbiographerofKeyneswouldhavebeenimmenselymoredifficult。

  Theplanoftheedition,asatpresentintended,isthis。Itwilltotaltwenty-fivevolumes。Ofthese,thefirsteightwillbeKeynes\'spublishedbooksfromIndianCurrencyandFinance,in1913,totheGeneralTheoryin1936,withtheadditionofhisTreatiseonProbability。

  Therewillnextfollow,asvols。IXandx,EssaysinPersuasionandEssaysinBiography,[Pagexii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  graphy,representingKeynes\'sowncollectionsofarticles。EssaysinPersuasionwilldifferfromtheoriginalprintingintworespects:

  itwillcontainthefulltextsofthearticlesorpamphletsincludedinitandnotasintheoriginalprintingabbreviatedversionsofthesearticles,anditwillhaveaddedoneortwolaterarticleswhichareofexactlythesamecharacterasthoseincludedbyKeynesinhisoriginalcollection。InthecaseofEssaysinBiography,weshalladdoneortwootherbiographicalstudiesthatKeyneswrotelaterthan1933。

  Therewillfollowfourvolumes,XItoXIV,ofeconomicarticlesandcorrespondence,andonevolumeofsocial,politicalandliterarywritings。

  WeshallincludeinthesevolumessuchpartofKeynes\'seconomiccorrespondenceasiscloselyassociatedwiththearticlesthatareprintedinthem。

  Thefurtherninevolumes,asweestimateatpresent,willdealwithKeynes\'sActivitiesduringtheyearsfromthebeginningofhispubliclifein1905untilhisdeath。Ineachoftheperiodsintowhichweproposetodividethismaterial,thevolumeconcernedwillpublishhismoreephemeralwritings,allofithithertouncollected,hiscorrespondencerelatingtotheseactivities,andsuchothermaterialandcorrespondenceasisnecessarytotheunderstandingofKeynes\'sactivities。ThesevolumesarebeingeditedbyElizabethJohnsonandDonaldMoggridge,anditistheirtasktotraceandinterpretKeynes\'sactivitiessufficientlytomakethematerialfullyintelligibletoalatergeneration。Untilthisworkhasprogressedfurther,itisnotpossibletosaywithexactitudewhetherthismaterialwillbedistributed,aswenowthink,overninevolumes,orwhetheritwillneedtobespreadoverafurthervolumeorvolumes。Therewillbeafinalvolumeofbibliographyandindex。

  Thoseresponsibleforthiseditionhavebeen:LordKahn,bothasLordKeynes\'sexecutorandasalongandintimatefriendofLordKeynes,abletohelpintheinterpretingofmuchthatwouldotherwisebemisunderstood;

  SirRoyHarrodastheauthorofhisbiography;AustinRobinsonasKeynes\'sco-editorontheEconomicJournalandsuccessorassecretaryoftheRoyalEconomicSociety。Theinitialeditorial[Pagexiii]GENERALINTRODUCTION

  taskswerecarriedbyElizabethJohnson。MorerecentlyshehasbeenjoinedinthisresponsibilitybyDonaldMoggridge。TheyhavebeenassistedatdifferenttimesbyJaneThistlethwaite,MrsMcDonald,whowasoriginallyresponsibleforthesystematicorderingofthefilesoftheKeynespapers;

  JudithMasterman,whoformanyyearsworkedwithMrsJohnsononthepapers;

  andmorerecentlybySusanWilsher,MargaretButler,andBarbaraLowe。EditorialIntroduction[Pagexv]

  EDITORIALINTRODUCTION

  \'Ihavebeenmuchpre-occupiedwiththecausation,sotospeak,ofmyprogressofmindfromtheclassicalpositiontomypresentviews,¾withtheorderinwhichtheproblemdevelopedinmymind。WhatsomepeopletreatasanunnecessarilycontroversialtoneisreallyduetotheimportanceinmyownmindofwhatIusedtobelieve,andofthemomentsoftransitionwhichwereformepersonallymomentsofillumination……Youdon\'tmentioneffectivedemandor,moreprecisely,thedemandscheduleforoutputasawhole,exceptinsofarasitisimplicitinthemultiplier。Tome,regardedhistorically,themostextraordinarythingisthecompletedisappearanceofthetheoryofdemandandsupplyforoutputasawhole,i。e。thetheoryofemployment,afterithadbeenforaquarterofacenturythemostdiscussedthingineconomics。Oneofthemostimportanttransitionsforme,aftermyTreatiseonMoneyhadbeenpublished,wassuddenlyrealisingthis。ItonlycameafterIhadenunciatedtomyselfthepsychologicallawthat,whenincomeincreases,thegapbetweenincomeandconsumptionwillincrease,¾aconclusionofvastimportancetomyownthinkingbutnotapparently,expressedjustlikethat,toanyoneelse\'s。Then,appreciablylater,camethenotionofinterestbeingthemeasureofliquiditypreference,whichbecamequiteclearinmymindthemomentIthoughtofit。Andlastofall,afteranimmenselotofmuddlingandmanydrafts,theproperdefinitionofthemarginalefficiencyofcapitallinkeduponethingwithanother。\'

  Withthesewords,KeynestoldR。F。Harrodinthesummerof1936thedevelopmentofhisideastowardstheGeneralTheory。\'[1]

  TheoriginsoftheGeneralTheorylieinKeynes\'sdissatisfactionwithhisTreatiseonMoneyevenatthetimeofpublication[2],intheprolongedinternationalslumpoftheyears[Pagexvi]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  after1929,andinthestimulationthatemanatedfroma\'circus\'ofyoungCambridgeeconomistswhobeganmeetingsoonafterthepublicationoftheTreatisetodiscussanddissectitstwovolumes。Itwasthediscussionswithinthisgroup,retailedtohimbyRichardKahn,thatprovidedthebasisforthefirsttransitionalstagebetweentheTreatiseandtheGeneralTheory。\'[3]

  ThisstagewassoonfollowedbyKeynes\'sexplicitcommitmenttorevisethetheoreticalfoundationsoftheTreatise,whichhadonlydealtincidentallyintermsofmovementsinoutput。ThusinhisprefaceforJapanesereadersoftheTreatise,datedApril1932,KeynesnotedthatratherthanrevisehisTreatiseheproposed\'topublishashortbookofapurelytheoreticalcharacter,extendingandcorrectingthetheoreticalbasisofmyviewsassetforthinBooksIIIandIV\'。[4]Thiscommitmentbecameclearerintheautumnof1932,whenKeyneschangedthetitleofhiscourseoflecturesfrom\'ThePureTheoryofMoney\',theirtitlesincetheautumnof1929,to\'TheMonetaryTheoryofProduction\',thetitletheyweretohaveuntil1934。Theselectureswereconcernedwithmovementsinoutputasawholeandhadthebeginningsoftheconceptofliquiditypreference,althoughitwasnotuntilhislecturesintheautumnof1933thatittooktheformusedintheGeneralTheory。

  ThefirstmajorpublishedindicationsofthedirectionKeynes\'sthoughtwastakingbetweentheTreatiseandtheGeneralTheorycamein1933intheformofanessay\'TheMonetaryTheoryofProduction\',apamphlet\'TheMeanstoProsperity\',anarticle\'TheMultiplier\'whichisincludedintheAmericaneditionof\'TheMeanstoProsperity\',andabiographicalsketchofT。R。Malthus,[5]allofwhicharecastintermsofmovementsofoutputasawholeandreflecteddissatisfactionwithacceptedtheory。

  ThusthemajorbuildingblocksoftheGeneralTheoryhad[Pagexvii]EDITORIALINTRODUCTION

  beensteadilyaccumulatingeversince1931。Bythespringof1934,infact,allofthemwereinplace,exceptfortheideaofthemarginalefficiencyofcapital,asisclearfromdraftsfromthatperiodandaworkingpaperKeynespreparedduringhisVisittoAmericainMayandJune。[6]Itwasonlyduringthesummerof1934,however,thatthefinalpiecefellintoplace,andbytheautumnKeyneswasdeliveringhislectures,nowentitled\'TheGeneralTheoryofEmployment\'fromproofsheets。

  However,beforepublicationtherewastobeanotheryearofintensediscussionandredrafting。KeynescirculatedproofsofthebooktoR。F。

  Kahn,JoanRobinson,R。F。Harrod,D。H。RobertsonandR。G。Hawtreyandtookcarefulnoteoftheircommentsandsuggestedimprovements,statingclearlyhispointsofdisagreementwhenhedidnotadoptthem。[7]ThusitwasafteralmostfiveyearsofintensepreparationthatthebookappearedinFebruary1936atapriceof5shillingstoencouragealargesaleamongstudents。

  Afterpublicationtherewasstillfurtherdiscussionand,occasionally,controversy。Keyneshimselfencouragedthisdiscussion,for,asheputit[8]

  IammoreattachedtothecomparativelysimplefundamentalideaswhichunderliemytheorythantotheparticularformsinwhichIhaveembodiedthem,andhavenodesirethatthelattershouldbecrystallizedatthepresentstageofthedebate。Ifthesimplebasicideascanbecomefamiliarandacceptable,timeandexperienceandthecollaborationofanumberofmindswilldiscoverthebestwayofexpressingthem。

  Inthisspirit,Keynesenteredintoconsiderablecorrespondencewithcritics,expositorsandextendersofhisideas。[9]Moreover,asthedebateprogressed,hisownideaswerechangingandbyAugust1936hewaswritingtoR。G。Hawtrey[10]

  [Pagexviii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  ImaymentionthatIamthinkingofproducinginthecourseofthenextyearorsowhatmightbecalledfootnotestomypreviousbook,dealingwithvariouscriticismsandvariouspointswhichwantcarryingfurther。

  Ofcourse,infact,thewholebookwantsre-writingandrecasting。ButIamstillnotinasufficientlychangedstateofmindasyettobeinthepositiontodothat。OntheotherhandIcandealwithspecificpoints。

  Fromthisperiod,wehaveonedrafttableofcontentstoabookentitledFootnotestoTheGeneralTheoryofEmploymentInterestandMoney,atitlethatechoeshisfirstdrafttableofcontentsafterEconomicConsequencesofthePeace。[11]HealsousedthistitleforthelectureshedeliveredinCambridgeinthespringof1937,fromwhichdraftsoftwolecturessurvive。[12]InfactheseemstohavebeenmakingconsiderableprogresstowardssteppingoutsidetheGeneralTheorybythattime,forhetoldJoanRobinsoninApril1937[13]

  Iamgraduallygettingmyselfintoanoutsidepositiontowardsthebook,andamfeelingmywaytonewlinesofexposition。PerhapsyouwillseewhatIhaveinmindinmyforthcominglectures。

  Unfortunately,theproposed\'footnotes\'nevergotbeyondthelectures,forKeynessufferedasevereheartattackintheearlysummerof1937andwasneverabletoworkatanythingnearhisoldpaceuntilwarcamein1939¾andthenhisenergiesweredirectedinotherdirections。HowhewouldhaverevisedtheGeneralTheoryifhehadremainedingoodhealthisimpossibletoguess。Onecanonlybecertainthathewouldhaverevisedit。

  SinceitspublicationinBritaininFebruary1936,theGeneralTheoryhasbeenpublishedintheUnitedStatesoriginallyfromsheetsprintedinEnglandandtranslatedintoGerman,Japanese,French,Spanish,Czech,Italian,Serbo-Croat,Hindi,Finnish,Roumanian,HungarianandRussian。

  TheGerman,FrenchandJapaneseeditionsallcarriedspecialadditionalprefaceswhichfollowedtheoriginalEnglishpreface。Theseadditionalprefacesareprintedbelow。

  [Pagexix]EDITORIALINTRODUCTION

  ThiseditionfollowsthereprintedEnglishfirstedition,whichdiffersfromthefirstEnglishprintinginthatacorrectiontolines23-5

  ofpage123wasmovedfromanerratumnotefollowingtheindexintothetextandcorrectionsweremadetopages44,113,176,357。InAppendixIwehaveintroducedalistofminortextualcorrectionsfromthereprintedfirstedition。Inaddition,inAppendices2and3wereprintKeynes\'sarticles\'FluctuationsinNetInvestmentintheUnitedStates\'and\'RelativeMovementsofRealWagesandOutput\'whichdealwitherrorsonpages103-4

  and9-10respectivelyofthetextitself。ForfurtherdiscussionoftheGeneralTheoryanditsgenesis,thereaderisreferredtovolumesxiiiandxiv。

  Inprintingthisvolumewehavemadeitourfirstobjectivetofollowaspreciselyaspossiblethepaginationoftheoriginaledition。Animmenseliteratureofdetailedcriticismandanalysishasgrownuparoundthetextoftheoriginaleditionandwehavebeenanxiousthatreferencesinthatliteratureshouldapplyequallytothisnewedition。Thishasmeantthatwehavebeenunabletofollowpreciselythestandardtypographyoftheothervolumesintheseries。Thegainofreadyreference,inourview,justifiesthiscourse。Asinothervolumesoftheseries,wehavereducedtheexcessivecapitalisationfavouredbyKeynes\'soriginalprinters,butirritatingtoamoderneye。

  Preface[Pagexxi]

  PREFACE

  Thisbookischieflyaddressedtomyfelloweconomists。Ihopethatitwillbeintelligibletoothers。Butitsmainpurposeistodealwithdifficultquestionsoftheory,andonlyinthesecondplacewiththeapplicationsofthistheorytopractice。Foriforthodoxeconomicsisatfault,theerroristobefoundnotinthesuperstructure,whichhasbeenerectedwithgreatcareforlogicalconsistency,butinalackofclearnessandofgeneralityinthepremisses。ThusIcannotachievemyobjectofpersuadingeconomiststore-examinecriticallycertainoftheirbasicassumptionsexceptbyahighlyabstractargumentandalsobymuchcontroversy。Iwishtherecouldhavebeenlessofthelatter。ButIhavethoughtitimportant,notonlytoexplainmyownpointofview,butalsotoshowinwhatrespectsitdepartsfromtheprevailingtheory。Those,whoarestronglyweddedtowhatIshallcall\'theclassicaltheory\',willfluctuate,Iexpect,betweenabeliefthatIamquitewrongandabeliefthatIamsayingnothingnew。

  Itisforotherstodetermineifeitheroftheseorthethirdalternativeisright。Mycontroversialpassagesareaimedatprovidingsomematerialforananswer;andImustaskforgivenessIf,inthepursuitofsharpdistinctions,mycontroversyisitselftookeen。ImyselfheldwithconvictionformanyyearsthetheorieswhichInowattack,andIamnot,Ithink,ignorantoftheirstrongpoints。

  Themattersatissueareofanimportancewhichcannotbeexaggerated。

  But,ifmyexplanationsareright,itismyfelloweconomists,notthegeneralpublic,whomImustfirstconvince。Atthisstageoftheargumentthegeneralpublic,thoughwelcomeatthedebate,areonlyeavesdroppersatanattemptbyaneconomisttobringtoanissuethedeepdivergencesofopinionbetweenfelloweconomistswhichhaveforthetimebeingalmostdestroyedthepracticalinfluenceofeconomictheory,andwill,untiltheyareresolved,continuetodoso。

  TherelationbetweenthisbookandmyTreatiseonMoney[Pagexxii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  [JMKvols。vandvi],whichIpublishedfiveyearsago,isprobablyclearertomyselfthanitwillbetoothers;andwhatinmyownmindisanaturalevolutioninalineofthoughtwhichIhavebeenpursuingforseveralyears,maysometimesstrikethereaderasaconfusingchangeofview。ThisdifficultyisnotmadelessbycertainchangesinterminologywhichIhavefeltcompelledtomake。ThesechangesoflanguageIhavepointedoutinthecourseofthefollowingpages;butthegeneralrelationshipbetweenthetwobookscanbeexpressedbrieflyasfollows。WhenIbegantowritemyTreatiseonMoneyIwasstillmovingalongthetraditionallinesofregardingtheinfluenceofmoneyassomethingsotospeakseparatefromthegeneraltheoryofsupplyanddemand。WhenIfinishedit,Ihadmadesomeprogresstowardspushingmonetarytheorybacktobecomingatheoryofoutputasawhole。Butmylackofemancipationfrompreconceivedideasshoweditselfinwhatnowseemstometobetheoutstandingfaultofthetheoreticalpartsofthatworknamely,BooksIIIandIV,thatIfailedtodealthoroughlywiththeeffectsofchangesinthelevelofoutput。

  Myso-called\'fundamentalequationswereaninstantaneouspicturetakenontheassumptionofagivenoutput。Theyattemptedtoshowhow,assumingthegivenoutput,forcescoulddevelopwhichinvolvedaprofit-disequilibrium,andthusrequiredachangeinthelevelofoutput。Butthedynamicdevelopment,asdistinctfromtheinstantaneouspicture,wasleftincompleteandextremelyconfused。Thisbook,ontheotherhand,hasevolvedintowhatisprimarilyastudyoftheforceswhichdeterminechangesinthescaleofoutputandemploymentasawhole;and,whilstitisfoundthatmoneyentersintotheeconomicschemeinanessentialandpeculiarmanner,technicalmonetarydetailfallsintothebackground。Amonetaryeconomy,weshallfind,isessentiallyoneinwhichchangingviewsaboutthefuturearecapableofinfluencingthequantityofemploymentandnotmerelyitsdirection。Butourmethodofanalysingtheeconomicbehaviourofthepresentundertheinfluenceofchangingideasaboutthefutureisonewhichdependsontheinteractionofsupplyanddemand,andisin[Pagexxiii]PREFACE

  thiswaylinkedupwithourfundamentaltheoryofvalue。Wearethusledtoamoregeneraltheory,whichincludestheclassicaltheorywithwhichwearefamiliar,asaspecialcase。

  Thewriterofabooksuchasthis,treadingalongunfamiliarpaths,isextremelydependentoncriticismandconversationifheistoavoidanundueproportionofmistakes。Itisastonishingwhatfoolishthingsonecantemporarilybelieveifonethinkstoolongalone,particularlyineconomicsalongwiththeothermoralsciences,whereitisoftenimpossibletobringone\'sideastoaconclusivetesteitherformalorexperimental。

  Inthisbook,evenmoreperhapsthaninwritingmyTreatiseonMoney,IhavedependedontheconstantadviceandconstructivecriticismofMrR。F。Kahn。Thereisagreatdealinthisbookwhichwouldnothavetakentheshapeithasexceptathissuggestion。IhavealsohadmuchhelpfromMrsJoanRobinson,MrR。G。HawtreyandMrR。F。Harrod,whohavereadthewholeoftheproof-sheets。TheindexhasbeencompiledbyMrD。M。Bensusan-ButtofKing\'sCollege,Cambridge。

  Thecompositionofthisbookhasbeenfortheauthoralongstruggleofescape,andsomustthereadingofitbeformostreadersiftheauthor\'sassaultuponthemistobesuccessful,¾astruggleofescapefromhabitualmodesofthoughtandexpression。Theideaswhicharehereexpressedsolaboriouslyareextremelysimpleandshouldbeobvious。Thedifficultylies,notinthenewideas,butinescapingfromtheoldones,whichramify,forthosebroughtupasmostofushavebeen,intoeverycornerofourminds。

  J。M。KEYNES

  13December1935

  PrefacetoJapaneseEdition[Pagexxix]

  PREFACETOTHEJAPANESEEDITION

  AlfredMarshall,onwhosePrinciplesofEconomicsallcontemporaryEnglisheconomistshavebeenbroughtup,wasatparticularpainstoemphasisethecontinuityofhisthoughtwithRicardo\'s。HisworklargelyconsistedingraftingthemarginalprincipleandtheprincipleofsubstitutionontotheRicardiantradition;andhistheoryofoutputandconsumptionasawhole,asdistinctfromhistheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutput,wasneverseparatelyexpounded。Whetherhehimselffelttheneedofsuchatheory,Iamnotsure。Buthisimmediatesuccessorsandfollowershavecertainlydispensedwithitandhavenot,apparently,feltthelackofit。ItwasinthisatmospherethatIwasbroughtup。I

  taughtthesedoctrinesmyselfanditisonlywithinthelastdecadethatIhavebeenconsciousoftheirinsufficiency。Inmyownthoughtanddevelopment,therefore,thisbookrepresentsareaction,atransitionawayfromtheEnglishclassicalororthodoxtradition。MyemphasisuponthisinthefollowingpagesanduponthepointsofmydivergencefromreceiveddoctrinehasbeenregardedinsomequartersinEnglandasundulycontroversial。

  ButhowcanonebroughtupinEnglisheconomicorthodoxy,indeedapriestofthatfaithatonetime,avoidsomecontroversialemphasis,whenhefirstbecomesaProtestant?

  PerhapsJapanesereaders,however,willneitherrequirenorresistmyassaultsagainsttheEnglishtradition。WearewellawareofthelargescaleonwhichEnglisheconomicwritingsarereadinJapan,butwearenotsowellinformedastohowJapaneseopinionsregardthem。TherecentpraiseworthyenterpriseonthepartoftheInternationalEconomicCircleofTokyoinreprintingMalthus\'s\'PrinciplesofPoliticalEconomy\'asthefirstvolumeintheTokyoSeriesofReprintsencouragesmetothinkthatabookwhichtracesitsdescentfromMalthusratherthanRicardomaybereceivedwithsympathyinsomequartersatleast。

  [Pagexxx]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  AtanyrateIamgratefultotheOrientalEconomistformakingitpossibleformetoapproachJapanesereaderswithouttheextrahandicapofaforeignlanguage。

  J。M。KEYNES

  4December1936

  PrefacetoGermanEdition[Pagexxv]

  PREFACETOTHEGERMANEDITION

  AlfredMarshall,onwhosePrinciplesofEconomicsallcontemporaryEnglisheconomistshavebeenbroughtup,wasatparticularpainstoemphasisethecontinuityofhisthoughtwithRicardo\'s。HisworklargelyconsistedingraftingthemarginalprincipleandtheprincipleofsubstitutionontotheRicardiantradition;andhistheoryofoutputandconsumptionasawhole,asdistinctfromhistheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutput,wasneverseparatelyexpounded。Whetherhehimselffelttheneedofsuchatheory,Iamnotsure。Buthisimmediatesuccessorsandfollowershavecertainlydispensedwithitandhavenot,apparently,feltthelackofit。ItwasinthisatmospherethatIwasbroughtup。I

  taughtthesedoctrinesmyselfanditisonlywithinthelastdecadethatIhavebeenconsciousoftheirinsufficiency。Inmyownthoughtanddevelopment,therefore,thisbookrepresentsareaction,atransitionawayfromtheEnglishclassicalororthodoxtradition。MyemphasisuponthisinthefollowingpagesanduponthepointsofmydivergencefromreceiveddoctrinehasbeenregardedinsomequartersinEnglandasundulycontroversial。

  ButhowcanonebroughtupaCatholicinEnglisheconomics,indeedapriestofthatfaith,avoidsomecontroversialemphasis,whenhefirstbecomesaProtestant?

  ButIfancythatallthismayimpressGermanreaderssomewhatdifferently。

  Theorthodoxtradition,whichruledinnineteenthcenturyEngland,nevertooksofirmaholdofGermanthought。TherehavealwaysexistedimportantschoolsofeconomistsinGermanywhohavestronglydisputedtheadequacyoftheclassicaltheoryfortheanalysisofcontemporaryevents。TheManchesterSchoolandMarxismbothderiveultimatelyfromRicardo,¾aconclusionwhichisonlysuperficiallysurprising。ButinGermanytherehasalwaysexistedalargesectionofopinionwhichhasadheredneithertotheonenortotheother。

  Itcanscarcelybeclaimed,however,thatthisschoolof[Pagexxvi]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  thoughthaserectedarivaltheoreticalconstruction;orhasevenattemptedtodoso。Ithasbeensceptical,realistic,contentwithhistoricalandempiricalmethodsandresults,whichdiscardformalanalysis。ThemostimportantunorthodoxdiscussionontheoreticallineswasthatofWicksell。

  HisbookswereavailableinGermanastheywerenot,untillately,inEnglish;indeedoneofthemostimportantofthemwaswritteninGerman。

  ButhisfollowerswerechieflySwedesandAustrians,thelatterof。whomcombinedhisideaswithspecificallyAustriantheorysoastobringthemineffect,backagaintowardstheclassicaltradition。ThusGermany,quitecontrarytoherhabitinmostofthesciences,hasbeencontentforawholecenturytodowithoutanyformaltheoryofeconomicswhichwaspredominantandgenerallyaccepted。

  Perhaps,therefore,ImayexpectlessresistancefromGerman,thanfromEnglish,readersinofferingatheoryofemploymentandoutputasawhole,whichdepartsinimportantrespectsfromtheorthodoxtradition。ButcanIhopetoovercomeGermany\'seconomicagnosticism?CanIpersuadeGermaneconomiststhatmethodsofformalanalysishavesomethingimportanttocontributetotheinterpretationofcontemporaryeventsandtothemouldingofcontemporarypolicy?Afterall,itisGermantolikeatheory。HowhungryandthirstyGermaneconomistsmustfeelafterhavinglivedalltheseyearswithoutone!Certainly,itisworthwhileformetomaketheattempt。AndifIcancontributesomestraymorselstowardsthepreparationbyGermaneconomistsofafullrepastoftheorydesignedtomeetspecificallyGermanconditions,Ishallbecontent。ForIconfessthatmuchofthefollowingbookisillustratedandexpoundedmainlywithreferencetotheconditionsexistingintheAnglo-Saxoncountries。

  Neverthelessthetheoryofoutputasawhole,whichiswhatthefollowingbookpurportstoprovide,ismuchmoreeasilyadaptedtotheconditionsofatotalitarianstate,thanisthetheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutputproducedunderconditionsoffreecompetitionandalargemeasureoflaissez-faire。Thetheoryofthepsychologi-

  [Pagexxvii]PREFACETOTHEGERMANEDITION

  callawsrelatingconsumptionandsaving,theinfluenceofloanexpenditureonpricesandrealwages,thepartplayedbytherateofinterest¾theseremainasnecessaryingredientsinourschemeofthought。

  ItakethisopportunitytoacknowledgemyindebtednesstotheexcellentworkofmytranslatorHerrWaegerIhopehisvocabularyattheendofthisvolume[14]mayproveusefulbeyonditsimmediatepurposeandtomypublishers,MessrsDunckerandHumblot,whoseenterprise,fromthedaysnowsixteenyearsagowhentheypublishedmyEconomicConsequencesofthePeace,hasenabledmetomaintaincontactwithGermanreaders。

  J。M。KEYNES

  7September1936

  PrefacetoJapaneseEdition[Pagexxix]

  PREFACETOTHEJAPANESEEDITION

  AlfredMarshall,onwhosePrinciplesofEconomicsallcontemporaryEnglisheconomistshavebeenbroughtup,wasatparticularpainstoemphasisethecontinuityofhisthoughtwithRicardo\'s。HisworklargelyconsistedingraftingthemarginalprincipleandtheprincipleofsubstitutionontotheRicardiantradition;andhistheoryofoutputandconsumptionasawhole,asdistinctfromhistheoryoftheproductionanddistributionofagivenoutput,wasneverseparatelyexpounded。Whetherhehimselffelttheneedofsuchatheory,Iamnotsure。Buthisimmediatesuccessorsandfollowershavecertainlydispensedwithitandhavenot,apparently,feltthelackofit。ItwasinthisatmospherethatIwasbroughtup。I

  taughtthesedoctrinesmyselfanditisonlywithinthelastdecadethatIhavebeenconsciousoftheirinsufficiency。Inmyownthoughtanddevelopment,therefore,thisbookrepresentsareaction,atransitionawayfromtheEnglishclassicalororthodoxtradition。MyemphasisuponthisinthefollowingpagesanduponthepointsofmydivergencefromreceiveddoctrinehasbeenregardedinsomequartersinEnglandasundulycontroversial。

  ButhowcanonebroughtupinEnglisheconomicorthodoxy,indeedapriestofthatfaithatonetime,avoidsomecontroversialemphasis,whenhefirstbecomesaProtestant?

  PerhapsJapanesereaders,however,willneitherrequirenorresistmyassaultsagainsttheEnglishtradition。WearewellawareofthelargescaleonwhichEnglisheconomicwritingsarereadinJapan,butwearenotsowellinformedastohowJapaneseopinionsregardthem。TherecentpraiseworthyenterpriseonthepartoftheInternationalEconomicCircleofTokyoinreprintingMalthus\'s\'PrinciplesofPoliticalEconomy\'asthefirstvolumeintheTokyoSeriesofReprintsencouragesmetothinkthatabookwhichtracesitsdescentfromMalthusratherthanRicardomaybereceivedwithsympathyinsomequartersatleast。

  [Pagexxx]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  AtanyrateIamgratefultotheOrientalEconomistformakingitpossibleformetoapproachJapanesereaderswithouttheextrahandicapofaforeignlanguage。

  J。M。KEYNES

  4December1936

  PrefacetoFrenchEdition[Pagexxxi]

  PREFACETOTHEFRENCHEDITION

  Forahundredyearsorlonger,EnglishPoliticalEconomyhasbeendominatedbyanorthodoxy。Thatisnottosaythatanunchangingdoctrinehasprevailed。

  Onthecontrary。Therehasbeenaprogressiveevolutionofthedoctrine。

  Butitspresuppositions,itsatmosphere,itsmethodhaveremainedsurprisinglythesame,andaremarkablecontinuityhasbeenobservablethroughallthechanges。Inthatorthodoxy,inthatcontinuoustransition,Iwasbroughtup。Ilearntit,Itaughtit,Iwroteit。TothoselookingfromoutsideIprobablystillbelongtoit。Subsequenthistoriansofdoctrinewillregardthisbookasinessentiallythesametradition。ButImyselfinwritingit,andinotherrecentworkwhichhasleduptoit,havefeltmyselftobebreakingawayfromthisorthodoxy,tobeinstrongreactionagainstit,tobeescapingfromsomething,tobegaininganemancipation。Andthisstateofmindonmypartistheexplanationofcertainfaultsinthebook,inparticularitscontroversialnoteinsomepassages,anditsairofbeingaddressedtoomuchtotheholdersofaparticularpointofviewandtoolittleadurbemetorbem。Iwaswantingtoconvincemyownenvironmentanddidnotaddressmyselfwithsufficientdirectnesstooutsideopinion。

  Nowthreeyearslater,havinggrownaccustomedtomynewskinandhavingalmostforgottenthesmellofmyoldone,Ishould,ifIwerewritingafresh,endeavourtofreemyselffromthisfaultandstatemyownpositioninamoreclear-cutmanner。

  Isayallthis,partlytoexplainandpartlytoexcuse,myselftoFrenchreaders。ForinFrancetherehasbeennoorthodoxtraditionwiththesameauthorityovercontemporaryopinionasinmyowncountry。IntheUnitedStatesthepositionhasbeenmuchthesameasinEngland。ButinFrance,asintherestofEurope,therehasbeennosuchdominantschoolsincetheexpiryoftheschoolofFrenchLiberaleconomistswhowereintheirprimetwentyyearsagothoughtheylivedtosogreatanage,longaftertheirinfluencehadpassedaway,[Pagexxxii]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  thatitfelltomyduty,whenIfirstbecameayouthfuleditoroftheEconomicJournaltowritetheobituariesofmanyofthem¾Levasseur,Molinari,Leroy-Beaulieu。IfCharlesGidehadattainedtothesameinfluenceandauthorityasAlfredMarshall,yourpositionwouldhavebornemoreresemblancetoours。Asitis,youreconomistsareeclectic,toomuchwesometimesthinkwithoutdeeprootsinsystematicthought。PerhapsthismaymakethemmoreeasilyaccessibletowhatIhavetosay。ButitmayalsohavetheresultthatmyreaderswillsometimeswonderwhatIamtalkingaboutwhenIspeak,withwhatsomeofmyEnglishcriticsconsideramisuseoflanguage,ofthe\'classical\'schoolofthoughtand\'classical\'economists。

  Itmay,therefore,behelpfultomyFrenchreadersifIattempttoindicateverybrieflywhatIregardasthemaindifferentiaeofmyapproach。

  Ihavecalledmytheoryageneraltheory。ImeanbythisthatIamchieflyconcernedwiththebehaviouroftheeconomicsystemasawhole,¾withaggregateincomes,aggregateprofits,aggregateoutput,aggregateemployment,aggregateinvestment,aggregatesavingratherthanwiththeincomes,profits,output,employment,investmentandsavingofparticularindustries,firmsorindividuals。AndIarguethatimportantmistakeshavebeenmadethroughextendingtothesystemasawholeconclusionswhichhavebeencorrectlyarrivedatinrespectofapartofittakeninisolation。

  LetmegiveexamplesofwhatImean。Mycontentionthatforthesystemasawholetheamountofincomewhichissaved,inthesensethatitisnotspentoncurrentconsumption,isandmustnecessarilybeexactlyequaltotheamountofnetnewinvestmenthasbeenconsideredaparadoxandhasbeentheoccasionofwidespreadcontroversy。Theexplanationofthisisundoubtedlytobefoundinthefactthatthisrelationshipofequalitybetweensavingandinvestment,whichnecessarilyholdsgoodforthesystemasawhole,doesnotholdgoodatallforaparticularindividual。ThereisnoreasonwhateverwhythenewinvestmentforwhichIamresponsibleshouldbearanyrelationwhatevertotheamountofmyownsavings。Qutelegitimatelyweregardanindi-

  [Pagexxxiii]PREFACETOTHEFRENCHEDITION

  vidual\'sincomeasindependentofwhathehimselfconsumesandinvests。

  Butthis,Ihavetopointout,shouldnothaveledustooverlookthefactthatthedemandarisingoutoftheconsumptionandinvestmentofoneindividualisthesourceoftheincomesofotherindividuals,sothatincomesingeneralarenotindependent,quitethecontrary,ofthedispositionofindividualstospendandinvest;andsinceinturnthereadinessofindividualstospendandinvestdependsontheirincomes,arelationshipissetupbetweenaggregatesavingsandaggregateinvestmentwhichcanbeveryeasilyshown,beyondanypossibilityofreasonabledispute,tobeoneofexactandnecessaryequality。Rightlyregardedthisisabanaleconclusion。Butitsetsinmotionatrainofthoughtfromwhichmoresubstantialmattersfollow。Itisshownthat,generallyspeaking,theactuallevelofoutputandemploymentdepends,notonthecapacitytoproduceoronthepre-existinglevelofincomes,butonthecurrentdecisionstoproducewhichdependinturnoncurrentdecisionstoinvestandonpresentexpectationsofcurrentandprospectiveconsumption。Moreover,assoonasweknowthepropensitytoconsumeandtosaveasIcallit,thatistosaytheresultforthecommunityasawholeoftheindividualpsychologicalinclinationsastohowtodisposeofgivenincomes,wecancalculatewhatlevelofincomes,andthereforewhatlevelofoutputandemployment,isinprofit-equilibriumwithagivenlevelofnewinvestment;outofwhichdevelopsthedoctrineoftheMultiplier。

  Oragain,itbecomesevidentthatanincreasedpropensitytosavewillceterisparibuscontractincomesandoutput;whilstanincreasedinducementtoinvestwillexpandthem。Wearethusabletoanalysethefactorswhichdeterminetheincomeandoutputofthesystemasawhole;¾wehave,inthemostexactsense,atheoryofemployment。Conclusionsemergefromthisreasoningwhichareparticularlyrelevanttotheproblemsofpublicfinanceandpublicpolicygenerallyandofthetradecycle。

  Anotherfeature,speciallycharacteristicofthisbook,isthetheoryoftherateofinterest。Inrecenttimesithasbeenheldbymanyeconomiststhattherateofcurrentsavingdetermined[Pagexxxiv]THEGENERALTHEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  thesupplyoffreecapital,thattherateofcurrentinvestmentgovernedthedemandforit,andthattherateofinterestwas,sotospeak,theequilibratingprice-factordeterminedbythepointofintersectionofthesupplycurveofsavingsandthedemandcurveofinvestment。Butifaggregatesavingisnecessarilyandinallcircumstancesexactlyequaltoaggregateinvestment,itisevidentthatthisexplanationcollapses。Wehavetosearchelsewhereforthesolution。Ifinditintheideathatitisthefunctionoftherateofinteresttopreserveequilibrium,notbetweenthedemandandthesupplyofnewcapitalgoods,butbetweenthedemandandthesupplyofmoney,thatistosaybetweenthedemandforliquidityandthemeansofsatisfyingthisdemand。Iamherereturningtothedoctrineoftheolder,pre-nineteenthcenturyeconomists。Montesquieu,forexample,sawthistruthwithconsiderableclarity,[15]¾MontesquieuwhowastherealFrenchequivalentofAdamSmith,thegreatestofyoureconomists,headandshouldersabovethephysiocratsinpenetration,clear-headednessandgoodsensewhicharethequalitiesaneconomistshouldhave。ButImustleaveittothetextofthisbooktoshowhowindetailallthisworksout。

  IhavecalledthisbooktheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney;andthethirdfeaturetowhichImaycallattentionisthetreatmentofmoneyandprices。ThefollowinganalysisregistersmyfinalescapefromtheconfusionsoftheQuantityTheory,whichonceentangledme。Iregardthepricelevelasawholeasbeingdeterminedinpreciselythesamewayasindividualprices;thatistosay,undertheinfluenceofsupplyanddemand。Technicalconditions,thelevelofwages,theextentofunusedcapacityofplantandlabour,andthestateofmarketsandcompetitiondeterminethesupplyconditionsofindividualproductsandofproductsasawhole。Thedecisionsofentrepreneurs,whichprovidetheincomesofindividualproducersandthedecisionsofthoseindividualsastothedispositionofsuchincomesdeterminethedemandconditions。Andprices¾bothindividualpricesandtheprice-level¾emergeastheresultantofthesetwo[Pagexxxv]PREFACETOTHEFRENCHEDITION

  factors。Money,andthequantityofmoney,arenotdirectinfluencesatthisstageoftheproceedings。Theyhavedonetheirworkatanearlierstageoftheanalysis。Thequantityofmoneydeterminesthesupplyofliquidresources,andhencetherateofinterest,andinconjunctionwithotherfactorsparticularlythatofconfidencetheinducementtoinvest,whichinturnfixestheequilibriumlevelofincomes,outputandemploymentandateachstageinconjunctionwithotherfactorstheprice-levelasawholethroughtheinfluencesofsupplyanddemandthusestablished。

  Ibelievethateconomicseverywhereuptorecenttimeshasbeendominated,muchmorethanhasbeenunderstood,bythedoctrinesassociatedwiththenameofJ-B。Say。Itistruethathis\'lawofmarkets\'hasbeenlongabandonedbymosteconomists;buttheyhavenotextricatedthemselvesfromhisbasicassumptionsandparticularlyfromhisfallacythatdemandiscreatedbysupply。Saywasimplicitlyassumingthattheeconomicsystemwasalwaysoperatinguptoitsfullcapacity,sothatanewactivitywasalwaysinsubstitutionfor,andneverinadditionto,someotheractivity。Nearlyallsubsequenteconomictheoryhasdependedon,inthesensethatithasrequired,thissameassumption。Yetatheorysobasedisclearlyincompetenttotackletheproblemsofunemploymentandofthetradecycle。PerhapsIcanbestexpresstoFrenchreaderswhatIclaimforthisbookbysayingthatinthetheoryofproductionitisafinalbreak-awayfromthedoctrinesofJ-B。SayandthatinthetheoryofinterestitisareturntothedoctrinesofMontesquieu。

  J。M。KEYNES

  20February1939

  King\'sCollegeCambridgeTheGeneralTheory[Page3]

  Chapter1

  THEGENERALTHEORY

  IhavecalledthisbooktheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,InterestandMoney,placingtheemphasisontheprefixgeneral。Theobjectofsuchatitleistocontrastthecharacterofmyargumentsandconclusionswiththoseoftheclassical[16]theoryofthesubject,uponwhichIwasbroughtupandwhichdominatestheeconomicthought,bothpracticalandtheoretical,ofthegoverningandacademicclassesofthisgeneration,asithasforahundredyearspast。Ishallarguethatthepostulatesoftheclassicaltheoryareapplicabletoaspecialcaseonlyandnottothegeneralcase,thesituationwhichitassumesbeingalimitingpointofthepossiblepositionsofequilibrium。Moreover,thecharacteristicsofthespecialcaseassumedbytheclassicaltheoryhappennottobethoseoftheeconomicsocietyinwhichweactuallylive,withtheresultthatitsteachingismisleadinganddisastrousifweattempttoapplyittothefactsofexperience。

  PostulatesofClassicalEconomics[Page4]

  Chapter2

  THEPOSTULATESOFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS

  Mosttreatisesonthetheoryofvalueandproductionareprimarilyconcernedwiththedistributionofagivenvolumeofemployedresourcesbetweendifferentusesandwiththeconditionswhich,assumingtheemploymentofthisquantityofresources,determinetheirrelativerewardsandtherelativevaluesoftheirproducts。[17]

  Thequestion,also,ofthevolumeoftheavailableresources,inthesenseofthesizeoftheemployablepopulation,theextentofnaturalwealthandtheaccumulatedcapitalequipment,hasoftenbeentreateddescriptively。

  Butthepuretheoryofwhatdeterminestheactualemploymentoftheavailableresourceshasseldombeenexaminedingreatdetail。Tosaythatithasnotbeenexaminedatallwould,ofcourse,beabsurd。Foreverydiscussionconcerningfluctuationsofemployment,ofwhichtherehavebeenmany,hasbeenconcernedwithit。Imean,notthatthetopichasbeenoverlooked,butthatthefundamentaltheory[Page5]POSTULATES

  OFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS

  underlyingithasbeendeemedsosimpleandobviousthatithasreceived,atthemost,abaremention。[18]

  Theclassicaltheoryofemployment¾supposedlysimpleandobvious¾hasbeenbased,I

  think,ontwofundamentalpostulates,thoughpracticallywithoutdiscussion,namely:

  I。ThewageisequaltothemarginalproductoflabourThatistosay,thewageofanemployedpersonisequaltothevaluewhichwouldbelostifemploymentweretobereducedbyoneunitafterdeductinganyothercostswhichthisreductionofoutputwouldavoid;

  subject,however,tothequalificationthattheequalitymaybedisturbed,inaccordancewithcertainprinciples,ifcompetitionandmarketsareimperfect。

  II。Theutilityofthewagewhenagivenvolumeoflabourisemployedisequaltothemarginaldisutilityofthatamountofemployment。

  Thatistosay,therealwageofanemployedpersonisthatwhichisjustsufficientintheestimationoftheemployedpersonsthemselves

  toinducethevolumeoflabouractuallyemployedtobeforthcoming;subjecttothequalificationthattheequalityforeachindividualunitoflabourmaybedisturbedbycombinationbetweenemployableunitsanalogoustotheimperfections[Page6]THEGENERAL

  THEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  ofcompetitionwhichqualifythefirstpostulate。Disutilitymustbehereunderstoodtocovereverykindofreasonwhichmightleadaman,orabodyofmen,towithholdtheirlabourratherthanacceptawagewhichhadtothemautilitybelowacertainminimum。

  Thispostulateiscompatiblewithwhatmaybecalled\'frictional\'unemployment。

  Forarealisticinterpretationofitlegitimatelyallowsforvariousinexactnessesofadjustmentwhichstandinthewayofcontinuousfullemployment:forexample,unemploymentduetoatemporarywantofbalancebetweentherelativequantitiesofspecialisedresourcesasaresultofmiscalculationorintermittentdemand;ortotime-lagsconsequentonunforeseenchanges;ortothefactthatthechange-overfromoneemploymenttoanothercannotbeeffectedwithoutacertaindelay,sothattherewillalwaysexistinanon-staticsocietyaproportionofresourcesunemployed\'betweenjobs\'。Inadditionto\'frictional\'unemployment,thepostulateisalsocompatiblewith\'voluntary\'

  unemploymentduetotherefusalorinabilityofaunitoflabour,asaresultoflegislationorsocialpracticesorofcombinationforcollectivebargainingorofslowresponsetochangeorofmerehumanobstinacy,toacceptarewardcorrespondingtothevalueoftheproductattributabletoitsmarginalproductivity。Butthesetwocategoriesof\'frictional\'

  unemploymentand\'voluntary\'unemploymentarecomprehensive。Theclassicalpostulatesdonotadmitofthepossibilityofthethirdcategory,whichIshalldefinebelowas\'involuntary\'unemployment。

  Subjecttothesequalifications,thevolumeofemployedresourcesisdulydetermined,accordingtotheclassicaltheory,bythetwopostulates。

  Thefirstgivesusthedemandscheduleforemployment,thesecondgivesusthesupplyschedule;andtheamountofemploymentisfixedatthepointwheretheutilityofthemarginalproductbalancesthedisutilityofthemarginalemployment。

  [Page7]POSTULATES

  OFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS

  Itwouldfollowfromthisthatthereareonlyfourpossiblemeansofincreasingemployment:

  aAnimprovementinorganisationorinforesightwhichdiminishes\'frictional\'unemployment;

  badecreaseinthemarginaldisutilityoflabour,asexpressedbytherealwageforwhichadditionallabourisavailable,soastodiminish\'voluntary\'unemployment;

  canincreaseinthemarginalphysicalproductivityoflabourinthewage-goodsindustriestouseProfessorPigou\'sconvenienttermforgoodsuponthepriceofwhichtheutilityofthemoney-wagedepends;

  ordanincreaseinthepriceofnon-wage-goodscomparedwiththepriceofwage-goods,associatedwithashiftintheexpenditureofnon-wage-earnersfromwage-goodstonon-wage-goods。

  This,tothebestofmyunderstanding,isthesubstanceofProfessorPigou\'sTheoryofUnemployment¾theonlydetailedaccountoftheclassicaltheoryofemploymentwhichexists。

  [19]

  II

  Isittruethattheabovecategoriesarecomprehensiveinviewofthefactthatthepopulationgenerallyisseldomdoingasmuchworkasitwouldliketodoonthebasisofthecurrentwage?For,admittedly,morelabourwould,asarule,beforthcomingattheexistingmoney-wageifitweredemanded。[20]Theclassicalschoolreconcilethisphenomenonwiththeirsecondpostulatebyarguingthat,whilethedemandforlabour[Page8]THEGENERAL

  THEORYOFEMPLOYMENT

  attheexistingmoney-wagemaybesatisfiedbeforeeveryonewillingtoworkatthiswageisemployed,thissituationisduetoanopenortacitagreementamongstworkersnottoworkforless,andthatiflabourasawholewouldagreetoareductionofmoney-wagesmoreemploymentwouldbeforthcoming。Ifthisisthecase,suchunemployment,thoughapparentlyinvoluntary,isnotstrictlyso,andoughttobeincludedundertheabovecategoryof\'voluntary\'unemploymentduetotheeffectsofcollectivebargaining,etc。

  Thiscallsfortwoobservations,thefirstofwhichrelatestotheactualattitudeofworkerstowardsrealwagesandmoney-wagesrespectivelyandisnottheoreticallyfundamental,butthesecondofwhichisfundamental。

  Letusassume,forthemoment,thatlabourisnotpreparedtoworkforalowermoney-wageandthatareductionintheexistinglevelofmoney-wageswouldlead,throughstrikesorotherwise,toawithdrawalfromthelabourmarketoflabourwhichisnowemployed。Doesitfollowfromthisthattheexistinglevelofrealwagesaccuratelymeasuresthemarginaldisutilityoflabour?Notnecessarily。For,althoughareductionintheexistingmoney-wagewouldleadtoawithdrawaloflabour,itdoesnotfollowthatafallinthevalueoftheexistingmoney-wageintermsofwage-goodswoulddoso,ifitwereduetoariseinthepriceofthelatter。Inotherwords,itmaybethecasethatwithinacertainrangethedemandoflabourisforaminimummoney-wageandnotforaminimumrealwage。Theclassicalschoolhavetacitlyassumedthatthiswouldinvolvenosignificantchangeintheirtheory。Butthisisnotso。Forifthesupplyoflabourisnotafunctionofrealwagesasitssolevariable,theirargumentbreaksdownentirelyandleavesthequestionofwhattheactualemploymentwillbequiteindeterminate。

  [21]Theydonotseemtohaverealisedthat,unlessthesupplyoflabourisafunctionofrealwagesalone,[Page9]POSTULATES

  OFTHECLASSICALECONOMICS

  theirsupplycurveforlabourwillshiftbodilywitheverymovementofprices。Thustheirmethodistiedupwiththeirveryspecialassumptions,andcannotbeadaptedtodealwiththemoregeneralcase。

  Nowordinaryexperiencetellsus,beyonddoubt,thatasituationwherelabourstipulateswithinlimitsforamoney-wageratherthanarealwage,sofarfrombeingamerepossibility,isthenormalcase。Whilstworkerswillusuallyresistareductionofmoney-wages,itisnottheirpracticetowithdrawtheirlabourwheneverthereisariseinthepriceofwage-goods。

  Itissometimessaidthatitwouldbeillogicalforlabourtoresistareductionofmoney-wagesbutnottoresistareductionofrealwages。Forreasonsgivenbelowp。14,thismightnotbesoillogicalasitappearsatfirst;and,asweshallseelater,fortunatelyso。But,whetherlogicalorillogical,experienceshowsthatthisishowlabourinfactbehaves。

  Moreover,thecontentionthattheunemploymentwhichcharacterisesadepressionisduetoarefusalbylabourtoacceptareductionofmoney-wagesisnotclearlysupportedbythefacts。ItisnotveryplausibletoassertthatunemploymentintheUnitedStatesin1932wasdueeithertolabourobstinatelyrefusingtoacceptareductionofmoney-wagesortoitsobstinatelydemandingarealwagebeyondwhattheproductivityoftheeconomicmachinewascapableoffurnishing。Widevariationsareexperiencedinthevolumeofemploymentwithoutanyapparentchangeeitherintheminimumrealdemandsoflabourorinitsproductivity。Labourisnotmoretruculentinthedepressionthanintheboom¾farfromit。Norisitsphysicalproductivityless。Thesefactsfromexperienceareaprimafaciegroundforquestioningtheadequacyoftheclassicalanalysis。

  It[22]wouldbeinterestingtoseetheresultsofastatisticalenquiryintotheactualrelationshipbetween[Page10]THEGENERAL

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