RETROSPECTIVEPROPHECYASAFUNCTIONOFSCIENCE
\"UnemarqueplussurequetoutescellesdeZadig。\"——Cuvier。
Itisanusualandacommendablepracticetoprefacethediscussionoftheviewsofaphilosophicthinkerbysomeaccountofthemanandofthecircumstanceswhichshapedhislifeandcolouredhiswayoflookingatthings;but，thoughZadigiscitedinoneofthemostimportantchaptersofCuvier’sgreatestwork，littleisknownabouthim，andthatlittlemightperhapsbebetterauthenticatedthanitis。
ItissaidthathelivedatBabyloninthetimeofKingMoabdar;
butthenameofMoabdardoesnotappearinthelistofBabyloniansovereignsbroughttolightbythepatienceandtheindustryofthedecipherersofcuneiforminscriptionsintheselateryears;norindeedamIawarethatthereisanyotherauthorityforhisexistencethanthatofthebiographerofZadig，oneArouetdeVoltaire，amongwhosemoreconspicuousmeritsstricthistoricalaccuracyisperhapshardlytobereckoned。
HappilyZadigisinthepositionofagreatmanyotherphilosophers。Whathewaslikewhenhewasintheflesh，indeedwhetherheexistedatall，aremattersofnogreatconsequence。
Whatwecareaboutinalightisthatitshowstheway，notwhetheritislamporcandle，talloworwax。OuronlyrealinterestinZadigliesintheconceptionsofwhichheistheputativefather;andhisbiographerhasstatedthesewithsomuchclearnessandvivaciousillustration，thatweneedhardlyfeelapang，evenifcriticalresearchshouldproveKingMoabdarandalltherestofthestorytobeunhistorical，andreduceZadighimselftotheshadowyconditionofasolarmyth。
Voltairetellsusthat，disenchantedwithlifebysundrydomesticmisadventures，ZadigwithdrewfromtheturmoilofBabylontoasecludedretreatonthebanksoftheEuphrates，wherehebeguiledhissolitudebythestudyofnature。
Themanifoldwondersoftheworldoflifehadaparticularattractionforthelonelystudent;incessantandpatientobservationoftheplantsandanimalsabouthimsharpenedhisnaturallygoodpowersofobservationandofreasoning;until，atlength，heacquiredasagacitywhichenabledhimtoperceiveendlessminutedifferencesamongobjectswhich，totheuntutoredeye，appearedabsolutelyalike。
Itmighthavebeenexpectedthatthisenlargementofthepowersofthemindandofitsstoreofnaturalknowledgecouldtendtonothingbuttheincreaseofaman’sownwelfareandthegoodofhisfellow—men。ButZadigwasfatedtoexperiencethevanityofsuchexpectations。
\"Oneday，walkingnearalittlewood，hesaw，hasteningthatway，oneoftheQueen’schiefeunuchs，followedbyatroopofofficials，whoappearedtobeinthegreatestanxiety，runninghitherandthitherlikemendistraught，insearchofsomelosttreasure。
\"’Youngman，’criedtheeunuch，’haveyouseentheQueen’sdog？’
Zadigansweredmodestly，’Abitch，Ithink，notadog。’
’Quiteright，’repliedtheeunuch;andZadigcontinued，’Averysmallspanielwhohaslatelyhadpuppies;shelimpswiththeleftforeleg，andhasverylongears。’’Ah！youhaveseenherthen，’saidthebreathlesseunuch。’No，’answeredZadig，’Ihavenotseenher;andIreallywasnotawarethattheQueenpossessedaspaniel。’
\"Byanoddcoincidence，attheverysametime，thehandsomesthorseintheKing’sstablesbrokeawayfromhisgroomintheBabylonianplain。Thegrandhuntsmanandallhisstaffwereseekingthehorsewithasmuchanxietyastheeunuchandhispeoplethespaniel;andthegrandhuntsmanaskedZadigifhehadnotseentheKing’shorsegothatway。
\"’Afirst—rategalloper，small—hoofed，fivefeethigh;
tailthreefeetandahalflong;cheekpiecesofthebitoftwenty—threecaratgold;shoessilver？’saidZadig。
\"’Whichwaydidhego？Whereishe？’criedthegrandhuntsman。
\"’Ihavenotseenanythingofthehorse，andIneverheardofhimbefore，’repliedZadig。
\"ThegrandhuntsmanandthechiefeunuchmadesurethatZadighadstolenboththeKing’shorseandtheQueen’sspaniel，sotheyhaledhimbeforetheHighCourtofDesterham，whichatoncecondemnedhimtotheknout，andtransportationforlifetoSiberia。Butthesentencewashardlypronouncedwhenthelosthorseandspanielwerefound。Sothejudgeswereunderthepainfulnecessityofreconsideringtheirdecision:buttheyfinedZadigfourhundredouncesofgoldforsayinghehadseenthatwhichhehadnotseen。
\"Thefirstthingwastopaythefine;afterwardsZadigwaspermittedtoopenhisdefencetothecourt，whichhedidinthefollowingterms:
\"’Starsofjustice，abyssesofknowledge，mirrorsoftruth，whosegravityisasthatoflead，whoseinflexibilityisasthatofiron，whorivalthediamondinclearness，andpossessnolittleaffinitywithgold;sinceIampermittedtoaddressyouraugustassembly，IswearbyOrmuzdthatIhaveneverseentherespectableladydogoftheQueen，norbeheldthesacrosancthorseoftheKingofKings。
\"’Thisiswhathappened。IwastakingawalktowardsthelittlewoodnearwhichIsubsequentlyhadthehonourtomeetthevenerablechiefeunuchandthemostillustriousgrandhuntsman。
Inoticedthetrackofananimalinthesand，anditwaseasytoseethatitwasthatofasmalldog。Longfaintstreaksuponthelittleelevationsofsandbetweenthefootmarksconvincedmethatitwasashedogwithpendentdugs，showingthatshemusthavehadpuppiesnotmanydayssince。Otherscrapingsofthesand，whichalwayslayclosetothemarksoftheforepaws，indicatedthatshehadverylongears;and，astheimprintofonefootwasalwaysfainterthanthoseoftheotherthree，I
judgedthattheladydogofouraugustQueenwas，ifImayventuretosayso，alittlelame。
\"’WithrespecttothehorseoftheKingofKings，permitmetoobservethat，wanderingthroughthepathswhichtraversethewood，Inoticedthemarksofhorse—shoes。Theywereallequidistant。\"Ah！\"saidI，\"thisisafamousgalloper。\"Inanarrowalley，onlysevenfeetwide，thedustuponthetrunksofthetreeswasalittledisturbedatthreefeetandahalffromthemiddleofthepath。\"Thishorse，\"saidItomyself，\"hadatailthreefeetandahalflong，and，lashingitfromonesidetotheother，hehassweptawaythedust。\"Branchesofthetreesmetoverheadattheheightoffivefeet，andunderthemIsawnewlyfallenleaves;soIknewthatthehorsehadbrushedsomeofthebranches，andwasthereforefivefeethigh。Astohisbit，itmusthavebeenmadeoftwenty—threecaratgold，forhehadrubbeditagainstastone，whichturnedouttobeatouchstone，withthepropertiesofwhichIamfamiliarbyexperiment。Lastly，bythemarkswhichhisshoesleftuponpebblesofanotherkind，Iwasledtothinkthathisshoeswereoffinesilver。’
\"AllthejudgesadmiredZadig’sprofoundandsubtlediscernment;
andthefameofitreachedeventheKingandtheQueen。Fromtheante—roomstothepresence—chamber，Zadig’snamewasineverybody’smouth;and，althoughmanyofthemagiwereofopinionthatheoughttobeburntasasorcerer，theKingcommandedthatthefourhundredouncesofgoldwhichhehadbeenfinedshouldberestoredtohim。Sotheofficersofthecourtwentinstatewiththefourhundredounces;onlytheyretainedthreehundredandninety—eightforlegalexpenses，andtheirservantsexpectedfees。\"
ThosewhoareinterestedinlearningmoreofthefatefulhistoryofZadigmustturntotheoriginal;wearedealingwithhimonlyasaphilosopher，andthisbriefexcerptsufficesfortheexemplificationofthenatureofhisconclusionsandofthemethodsbywhichhearrivedatthem。
Theseconclusionsmaybesaidtobeofthenatureofretrospectiveprophecies;thoughitisperhapsalittlehazardoustoemployphraseologywhichperilouslysuggestsacontradictioninterms——theword\"prophecy\"beingsoconstantly，inordinaryuse，restrictedto\"foretelling。\"Strictly，however，thetermprophecyappliesasmuchtooutspeakingastoforetelling;and，evenintherestrictedsenseof\"divination，\"
itisobviousthattheessenceofthepropheticoperationdoesnotlieinitsbackwardorforwardrelationtothecourseoftime，butinthefactthatitistheapprehensionofthatwhichliesoutofthesphereofimmediateknowledge;theseeingofthatwhich，tothenaturalsenseoftheseer，isinvisible。
Theforetellerassertsthat，atsomefuturetime，aproperlysituatedobserverwillwitnesscertainevents;theclairvoyantdeclaresthat，atthispresenttime，certainthingsaretobewitnessedathousandmilesaway;theretrospectiveprophet（wouldthatthereweresuchawordas\"backteller！\"）affirmsthat，somanyhoursoryearsago，suchandsuchthingsweretobeseen。Inallthesecases，itisonlytherelationtotimewhichalters——theprocessofdivinationbeyondthelimitsofpossibledirectknowledgeremainsthesame。
NodoubtitwastheirinstinctiverecognitionoftheanalogybetweenZadig’sresultsandthoseobtainedbyauthorisedinspirationwhichinspiredtheBabylonianmagiwiththedesiretoburnthephilosopher。Zadigadmittedthathehadnevereitherseenorheardofthehorseofthekingorofthespanielofthequeen;andyetheventuredtoassertinthemostpositivemannerthatanimalsansweringtotheirdescriptiondidactuallyexistandranabouttheplainsofBabylon。Ifhismethodwasgoodforthedivinationofthecourseofeventstenhoursold，whyshoulditnotbegoodforthoseoftenyearsortencenturiespast;nay，mightitnotextendtenthousandyearsandjustifytheimpiousinmeddlingwiththetraditionsofOannesandthefish，andallthesacredfoundationsofBabyloniancosmogony？
Butthiswasnottheworst。TherewasanotherconsiderationwhichobviouslydictatedtothemorethoughtfulofthemagitheproprietyofburningZadigoutofhand。Hisdefencewasworsethanhisoffence。Itshowedthathismodeofdivinationwasfraughtwithdangertomagianismingeneral。Swollenwiththeprideofhumanreason，hehadignoredtheestablishedcanonsofmagianlore;and，trustingtowhatafterallwasmerecarnalcommonsense，heprofessedtoleadmentoadeeperinsightintonaturethanmagianwisdom，withallitsloftyantagonismtoeverythingcommon，hadeverreached。What，infact，layatthefoundationofallZadig’sargumentbutthecoarsecommonplaceassumption，uponwhicheveryactofourdailylivesisbased，thatwemayconcludefromaneffecttothepre—existenceofacausecompetenttoproducethateffect？
Thetrackswereexactlylikethosewhichdogsandhorsesleave;
thereforetheyweretheeffectsofsuchanimalsascauses。
Themarksatthesidesofthefore—printsofthedogtrackwereexactlysuchaswouldbeproducedbylongtrailingears;
thereforethedog’slongearswerethecausesofthesemarks——
andsoon。Nothingcanbemorehopelesslyvulgar，moreunlikethemajesticdevelopmentofasystemofgrandlyunintelligibleconclusionsfromsublimelyinconceivablepremissessuchasdelightsthemagianheart。Infact，Zadig’smethodwasnothingbutthemethodofallmankind。Retrospectiveprophecies，farmoreastonishingfortheirminuteaccuracythanthoseofZadig，arefamiliartothosewhohavewatchedthedailylifeofnomadicpeople。
Fromfreshlybrokentwigs，crushedleaves，disturbedpebbles，andimprintshardlydiscerniblebytheuntrainedeye，suchgraduatesintheUniversityofNaturewilldivine，notonlythefactthatapartyhaspassedthatway，butitsstrength，itscomposition，thecourseittook，andthenumberofhoursordayswhichhaveelapsedsinceitpassed。Buttheyareabletodothisbecause，likeZadig，theyperceiveendlessminutedifferenceswhereuntrainedeyesdiscernnothing;andbecausetheunconsciouslogicofcommonsensecompelsthemtoaccountfortheseeffectsbythecauseswhichtheyknowtobecompetenttoproducethem。
AndsuchmeremethodisedsavagerywastodiscoverthehiddenthingsofnaturebetterthanapriorideductionsfromthenatureofOrmuzd——perhapstogiveahistoryofthepast，inwhichOanneswouldbealtogetherignored！Decidedlyitwerebettertoburnthismanatonce。
Ifinstinct，oranunwonteduseofreason，ledMoabdar’smagitothisconclusiontwoorthreethousandyearsago，allthatcanbesaidisthatsubsequenthistoryhasfullyjustifiedthem。
FortherigorousapplicationofZadig’slogictotheresultsofaccurateandlong—continuedobservationhasfoundedallthosescienceswhichhavebeentermedhistoricalorpalaetiological，becausetheyareretrospectivelypropheticandstrivetowardsthereconstructioninhumanimaginationofeventswhichhavevanishedandceasedtobe。
History，intheordinaryacceptationoftheword，isbasedupontheinterpretationofdocumentaryevidence;anddocumentswouldhavenoevidentialvalueunlesshistorianswerejustifiedintheirassumptionthattheyhavecomeintoexistencebytheoperationofcausessimilartothoseofwhichdocumentsare，inourpresentexperience，theeffects。Ifawrittenhistorycanbeproducedotherwisethanbyhumanagency，orifthemanwhowroteagivendocumentwasactuatedbyotherthanordinaryhumanmotives，suchdocumentsareofnomoreevidentialvaluethansomanyarabesques。
Archaeology，whichtakesupthethreadofhistorybeyondthepointatwhichdocumentaryevidencefailsus，couldhavenoexistence，exceptforourwellgroundedconfidencethatmonumentsandworksofartorartifice，haveneverbeenproducedbycausesdifferentinkindfromthosetowhichtheynowowetheirorigin。Andgeology，whichtracesbackthecourseofhistorybeyondthelimitsofarchaeology，couldtellusnothingexceptfortheassumptionthat，millionsofyearsago，water，heat，gravitation，friction，animalandvegetablelife，causedeffectsofthesamekindastheynowcause。Nay，evenphysicalastronomy，insofarasittakesusbacktotheuttermostpointoftimewhichpalaetiologicalsciencecanreach，isfoundeduponthesameassumption。Ifthelawofgravitationeverfailedtobetrue，eventoasmallextent，forthatperiod，thecalculationsoftheastronomerhavenoapplication。
Thepowerofprediction，ofprospectiveprophecy，isthatwhichiscommonlyregardedasthegreatprerogativeofphysicalscience。Andtrulyitisawonderfulfactthatonecangointoashopandbuyforasmallpriceabook，the\"NauticalAlmanac，\"
whichwillforetelltheexactpositiontobeoccupiedbyoneofJupiter’smoonssixmonthshence;nay，more，that，ifitwereworthwhile，theAstronomer—Royalcouldfurnishuswithasinfallibleapredictionapplicableto1980or2980。
Butastronomyisnotlessremarkableforitspowerofretrospectiveprophecy。
Thales，oldestofGreekphilosophers，thedatesofwhosebirthanddeathareuncertain，butwhoflourishedabout600
B。C。，issaidtohaveforetoldaneclipseofthesunwhichtookplaceinhistimeduringabattlebetweentheMedesandtheLydians。SirGeorgeAiryhaswrittenaverylearnedandinterestingmemoirinwhichheprovesthatsuchaneclipsewasvisibleinLydiaontheafternoonofthe28thofMayintheyear585B。C。