The“cycle“ofexaltation，crisis，anddepressionhasfrequentlybeendescribe。PerhapsaseffectiveadescriptionandanalysisasanyisthatofTugan-Baranowsky，Handelskrisen，chap。
Cf。，however，Cassel，“OmKriserochDaligaTider，“EkonomiskTidskrift，vol。vi，no。2，pp。69-78。
As，e。g。，theeraofprosperity1897-1902tookitsstartfromthedemandforsuppliescausedbytheSpanish-AmericanWar，thoughotherfavorablecircumstancesactedtogiveitvolume。MrCarver，possiblyfollowingsuggestionsgivenbySpiethoff’sdiscussion，hassuggestedthatthelinesofbusinessinwhichthefavorableinitialdisturbancearisesarenecessarilythoseengagedintheproductionof“producer’sgoods“；thereasonforthisbeingthat，inthenatureofthecase，“thevalueofproducer’sgoodstendstofluctuatemoreviolentlythanthevalueofconsumer’sgoods，“inasmuchasthevalueofproducer’sgoodsvariessomewhatasthemagnitudeofthemarginofprofits，whilethatoftheconsumer’sgoodsvariessomewhatasthemagnitudeoftheentiredemandonwhichthismarginofprofitsrestsasanincrement。Thevalueofproducer’sgoods=fdelta，thatofconsumer’sgoods=fdemanddelta。Fromthelikelineofargumentitshouldfollowthattheinitialbreakintimeofcrisismustcomeinsomelineofbusinessoccupiedwithproducer’sgoods。Cf。QuarterlyJournalofEconomics，Mayl903，pp。497-500。Seealsofoot-noteonp。181above。
9。Cf。Sombart，Kapitalismus，volII，ch。I，onthemotiveforcesatworkinadvancingbusinessenterprise。
10。The“intitialdisturbance“herespokenofmayofcoursebeofaprogressiveorrecurringcharacter，andsomaykeepthedifferentialadvantagegoinginaprogressivemanner，as，e。g。，inthecaseofaprogressivedemandforsuppliesduetoaprotractedwarortoaperiodofcontinuedpreparationforwar，suchashasoccurredinAmericaduringthelastfewyears。