Atsomepointinthesystemofinvestmentandbusinessextensionwillbefoundsomebranchesofindustrywhichhavegraduallylostwhatdifferentialadvantagetheystartedoutwithwhentheyenteredontheeraofprosperity;andiftheseareinvolvedinlargecontractsandundertakingswhicharecarriedoverintothephaseofthemovementatwhichthisparticularbranchofindustryhasceasedtohaveadifferentialadvantageinthepriceofitsoutputoverthecostofitssuppliesofmaterialorlabor,thenwhatmayhavebeenaconservativecapitalizationoftheirholdingsatanearlyphase,whiletheirearning-capacityrestedonalargedifferentialadvantage,willbecomeanexcessivecapitalizationaftertheirearning-capacityhasdeclinedthroughlossoftheirdifferentialadvantage。Somebranchorbranchesandsomefirmsorclassoffirmsnecessarilyfallintothispositioninthecourseofaperiodofphenomenallybrisktimes。Abusinessconcernsoplacednecessarilybecomesadebtor,anditsliabilitiesnecessarilybecome,insomedegree,baddebts。Itisforcedbycircumstancestodeliveritsoutputatpriceswhichprecludeitsobtainingsuchamarginasitsextensionofbusinesspresupposed。Thatistosay,itscapitalizationbecomesexcessivethroughshrinkageofitsearning-capacityascountedintermsofprice。Aconcernofthisclasswhichisadebtorisprecludedfrommeetingitsobligationsoutofitscurrentearnings;andif,ascommonlyhappensinanappreciableproportionofcases,itsobligationshavealreadybeenaugmentedtotheextentwhichitsrecentearning-capacitywouldwarrant,thentheconcernisinsolventforthetimebeing。Iftheclaimsagainstitarepressed,ithasnorecoursehutliquidationthroughforcedsalesorbankruptcy。
Eitherexpedient,ifthecaseisoneofconsiderablemagnitude,isdisastroustothebalancedsequenceofcreditrelationsinwhichthebusinesscommunityisinvolved。Thesystemofcreditrelationsprevailingatsuchatimehasgrownuponthebasisofanearning-capacitytransientlyenhancedbyawaveofdifferentialpriceadvantage;andwhenthiswavehaspassed,evenifitleavespriceshigherallaround,thedifferentialadvantageofatleastmostconcernsispast。Thedifferentialpriceadvantagehascometotheseveralbranchesorfirmsinsuccession,andhas,inthetypicalcase,successivelylefteachwithanexcessivecapitalization,andhasleftmanywithabodyofliabilitiesoutofproportiontotheirsubsequentearning-capacity。Thissituationmay,evidently,comeaboutinthismanner,evenwithoutloweringtheaggregatepecuniary
earning-capacityofthebusinesscommunitytothelevelatwhichitstoodbeforethewaveofprosperitysetin。11*
Butwhensuchasituationhascome,allthatisrequiredtobringonthegeneralcatastropheisthatsomeconsiderablecreditorfindoutthatthepresentearning-capacityofhisdebtorwillprobablynotwarrantthecapitalizationonwhichhiscollateralisappraised,Inself-defencehemustdeclinetheextensionofaloan,andforcedliquidationmustfollow。Suchaliquidationinvolvescuttingundertherulingpricesofproducts,whichlessenstheprofitsofcompetingfirmsandthrowsthemintotheclassofinsolvents,andsoextendsthereadjustmentofcapitalization。
Thepointofdeparturefortheensuingsequenceofliquidationisnotinfrequentlythefailureofsomebankinghouse,butwhenthisisthecaseitisprettysuretobeabankwhosefundshavebeen“tiedup“in“unwise“loanstoindustrialenterprisesoftheclassspokenofabove。12*